Putin-Xi call not expected to alter China’s balancing act with the West

10 months into a grinding Ukraine war, Moscow is expected to seek more support from Beijing
China unlikely to pivot further towards Russia at risk of antagonising the West, experts say

China-Russia relations

Shi Jiangtao

Published: 7:00pm, 27 Dec 2022

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Chinese President Xi Jinping is expected to speak with Vladimir Putin this week, as the Russian leader seeks more support from Beijing amid the protracted invasion of Ukraine.

Citing Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, Russian state news agency Tass said on Monday that the pair would talk before the end of the year.

Last week, Putin sent former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev to Beijing with a personal message for Xi, while Foreign Minister Wang Yi discussed the Ukraine situation by phone with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

In a speech on Sunday, Wang said that deepening its “rock-solid” strategic partnership with Russia was among China’s diplomatic priorities for next year, while also pledging to bring China’s fraught ties with the United States and its allies back on course.

But while Beijing has edged closer to Moscow since the Ukraine war began, observers said China was unlikely to alter its balance of relations between Russia and the West, as it tried to ease tensions with Washington.

Ten months into the war, Putin’s troops have suffered embarrassing battlefield setbacks while engaging in fierce fighting in eastern and southern regions of Ukraine.

As he tried to rally support for the war during a gathering of former Soviet republics in St Petersburg on Monday, Putin acknowledged disagreements with Central Asian nations.

Meanwhile, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky visited the US last week in his first overseas trip since the war started on February 24. He earned firm pledges of support from Washington, which included an advanced Patriot air defence system package.

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As Zelensky visits US, President Biden announces US$1.8 billion in military aid to Ukraine

But it is a different story for Beijing, according to observers. While China has so far refused to condemn Russia’s invasion or join the sweeping economic sanctions led by Western countries, it has refrained from offering sanctions relief or military support that Moscow has requested.

Putin and Xi proclaimed a “no limits” partnership between the two countries during the Russian leader’s Beijing visit in early February. However, Putin later acknowledged after another in-person meeting in September, that Xi had expressed “questions and concern” over Ukraine.

China’s much-challenged stance on the Ukraine war has exacerbated its diplomatic isolation, according to Li Mingjiang, an associate professor at Nanyang Technological University’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.

He said 2022 had been a difficult year for Chinese diplomacy, with Beijing forced to moderate its tone in the face of Washington’s successful coalition-building approach on a broad range of security, ideological, geoeconomic and hi-tech issues.

“Russia’s war against Ukraine is not the decisive factor, but China’s stance favouring Russia has no doubt left Beijing in a vulnerable spot. However, it is difficult for Beijing to make major adjustments,” Li said.

2023: China’s year to reinforce Russia ties and repair links with Europe, Asia

He said China was expected to continue its increasingly difficult balancing act between the West and Russia, with Beijing moving to repair its damaged ties with Washington and its allies in 2023. But its distrust and suspicion towards the West remained unchanged.

Washington’s concerns about Beijing’s position on the Ukraine war overshadowed Xi’s first in-person meeting with US President Joe Biden in Bali last month. Blinken, who is expected to visit Beijing early next year in a bid to manage the US-China feud, also raised the issue during his phone conversation with Wang last week.

Also last week, China and Russia held joint naval drills in the East China Sea.

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China and Russia conduct joint naval exercises to strengthen alliance

According to observers, Xi is expected to repeat China’s stance on the Ukraine war when he talks with Putin, and stress China’s support for efforts to promote peace and talks, as well as China’s willingness to play a role in resolving the crisis.

During his meeting with Medvedev on Wednesday, Xi said China attached great importance to ties with Russia, but “upholds objectivity and fairness” on Ukraine, adding that he hoped the two sides would remain rational, exercise restraint and begin talks.

Only Russia’s nukes stopping West from declaring war: Medvedev

Medvedev gave Xi a personal letter from Putin that praised “the unprecedented level of Russian-Chinese political dialogue and practical cooperation”, according to Tass.

Other experts also said that, political rhetoric aside, China was unlikely to pivot further towards Russia, because it would antagonise the US and other Western countries. Under the circumstances, Moscow needed Beijing more than Beijing needs Moscow, they said.

“As to the future of the US-China-Russia ties, I would say we should not treat Putin’s Russia as we think of the Soviet empire,” said Zhao Ma, an associate professor of modern Chinese history and culture at Washington University in St Louis.

Putin no longer has a military alliance like the now-defunct Warsaw Pact, with its military in disarray and its economy representing a little more than 1 per cent of the world’s economy, according to Ma.

“Moscow is still an energy superpower, but such dominance could decrease over time as many countries are seeking alternative sources and cutting back on their reliance on Russian oil and gas,” Ma said.

“Both Washington and Beijing know this, and they are right-sizing how much threat Putin poses or how much help Putin can provide.”