China will retaliate if Kevin McCarthy visits Taipei, but with less fury, observers say

Name: German delegation visit to Taiwan ‘a gesture of support and solidarity’ against Beijing
Uploaded: 2023-01-24T14:30:12.000Z
Duration: 2 min 55 s
Description: German delegation visit to Taiwan ‘a gesture of support and solidarity’ against Beijing

Reports of trip to the island by new US House speaker spark more concerns about US-China relations

But Chinese military reaction likely to be milder than Nancy Pelosi’s visit, with long-term interests unchanged

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Reports of a trip to the self-ruled island by newly elected Speaker of the House Kevin McCarthy have sparked more concerns about US-China relations. Photo: Bloomberg

Hayley Wong

Published: 10:30pm, 24 Jan 2023Updated: 11:30am, 26 Jan 2023

Corrected [11:28am, 26 Jan, 2023]

[11:28am, 26 Jan, 2023]
This story has been updated after an earlier version mistranslated a comment by Professor Zhu Feng from Nanjing University

A possible visit by US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy to Taiwan would likely prompt a military response from mainland China, but milder than the one that followed former speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit, observers said.

The US Defence Department is preparing for McCarthy to visit Taiwan this spring, Punchbowl News reported, in what would be the second trip to the island by a US House speaker in less than a year.

A meeting between US President Joe Biden and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the Group of 20 summit last November was intended to pave the way for improved relations between the two nations, but a possible McCarthy visit has stoked new concerns of another deterioration in relations.

However, if McCarthy does visit the self-ruled island – a move certain to stoke US-China tensions in the short term – the Pelosi trip indicates that the risk of future diplomatic breakdowns would remain low in the longer term, according to observers.

02:55

German delegation visit to Taiwan ‘a gesture of support and solidarity’ against Beijing

China would “definitely” retaliate with military measures, said Yue Gang, a retired colonel from the People’s Liberation Army. But it would not “treat” McCarthy like his predecessor Pelosi, whose trip to Taiwan in August triggered fury from Beijing.

“It might not even be half of the level when Pelosi visited,” he added.

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