As Nato chief visits South Korea and Japan, China will be high on agenda
- Jens Stoltenberg is expected to meet South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida during trip
- Analysts say it could lay the groundwork for Indo-Pacific security partnership, but Beijing’s response is likely to be measured
Stoltenberg will meet South Korean President Yoon Suk-yeol during the four-day trip that begins in Seoul on Sunday, Yonhap News Agency reported, citing a presidential official. He will also meet Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida in Tokyo.
As well as Yoon, the Nato secretary general is expected to meet South Korean Foreign Minister Park Jin and other senior officials while in Seoul. The Yonhap report said US Secretary of Defence Lloyd Austin would also visit South Korea next week.
Yoon and Kishida also met US President Joe Biden for a trilateral summit on the sidelines of the Madrid talks, the first time leaders of the three nations had met since 2017.
Both South Korea and Japan have sought to step up ties with Nato amid nuclear and missile threats from North Korea and growing tensions with China.
Choo Jae-woo, a professor of Chinese studies at Kyung Hee University in Seoul, said that during the trip Stoltenberg would likely discuss the countries’ goals in their Indo-Pacific strategy, with the conversation focusing largely on China.
He expected the talks to be “an icebreaker” that could see Stoltenberg planning for future dialogue on security and building communication channels with the two countries.
According to Neil Thomas, a senior analyst for China and Northeast Asia at Eurasia Group, a political risk consultancy, the growing partnership between Nato and South Korea and Japan reflects “shared concerns about China’s military build-up and security ambitions in the Indo-Pacific”.
He said new measures to boost cooperation and dialogue could include non-traditional security domains such as cybersecurity and economic coercion.
“Stoltenberg is [also] likely to voice support for Tokyo’s decision to approve a defence budget … the same level for which Nato member states pledge to aim,” he said.
Thomas said that with South Korea setting up a diplomatic mission to Nato in November, “the country’s interest in deeper relations with Nato is more as a hedge against China than as a part of any foreign policy overhaul of the type happening in Japan”.
China’s response to the latest efforts to deepen ties is expected to be measured, according to analysts.
Yue Gang, a retired People’s Liberation Army colonel, said it was apparent that Nato was seeking to strengthen cooperation with non-member states in Asia. He said Beijing was likely to issue a “reminder” that the alliance does not have a legitimate claim and warn of the potential for regional instability.
“But if they take further action, especially militarily, [China] might also respond militarily,” Yue said.
Choo from Kyung Hee University also believed that Beijing’s reaction to the Stoltenberg trip was likely to be subdued.
“China will take a back seat to try to wait and see where the meeting is going to lead the nations when it comes to further engagement with Nato, because nothing concrete has come out yet,” he said.
After their leaders attended the Nato summit last year, “China knows that Korea and Japan are going to be more proactive in their engagement with Nato”, he added.
But with Japan leaning closer to the alliance and its significance in the Indo-Pacific, Choo said “China would not want to see Japan utilising or exploiting this opportunity to further enhance its military projections towards Nato”.
