Taiwan warnings show US military is preparing for war, Chinese analysts say

Name: Taiwan air force holds annual drill ahead of Lunar New Year holiday amid rising pressure from PLA
Uploaded: 2023-01-30T14:30:15.000Z
Duration: 3 min 8 s
Description: Taiwan air force holds annual drill ahead of Lunar New Year holiday amid rising pressure from PLA

Risk of conflict between Chinese, US militaries has increased as both sides boost deterrence capabilities, experts say

Top US commanders have predicted military conflict with China may happen in the near future

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The risk of a conflict between the Chinese and US militaries has increased as both sides boost deterrence capabilities, experts say. Photo: Reuters

Minnie Chan

Published: 10:30pm, 30 Jan 2023Updated: 4:57am, 31 Jan 2023

A warning by a US air force commander that a military conflict with mainland China could come as early as 2025 implies the American military is gearing up combat readiness over Taiwan, according to analysts, who said the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) would also boost its deterrence capabilities.

The latest warning was from Mike Minihan, the head of the Air Mobility Command, who said war over Taiwan might happen as soon as 2025.

In an internal memorandum that first emerged on social media on Friday, Minihan, a US four-star general, urged his commanders to push their units to achieve maximum operational battle readiness this year.

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Taiwan air force holds annual drill ahead of Lunar New Year holiday amid rising pressure from PLA

“Xi’s team, reason, and opportunity are all aligned for 2025,” Minihan said, adding that a presidential election on the self-ruled island next year would offer Chinese President Xi Jinping an excuse for military aggression.

“It seems like the US military is using the warnings to declare its stance clearer day after day: if mainland China intends to attack Taiwan, then the Americans should react with military intervention,” said Zhu Feng, a professor of international affairs at Nanjing University.

“Such warnings may encourage American pilots to become more aggressive when dealing with their Chinese counterparts on the front lines, increasing the risk of conflicts.”

“The unprecedented anxiety over a war for Taiwan [in 1971] was caused by a lack of intercommunications and mutual understanding,” said Zhu, who blamed the ongoing deadlock on former US president Donald Trump’s strategy to use Taiwan as a key bargaining chip in his hardline China policy.