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China-Russia relations
ChinaDiplomacy
Shi Jiangtao
As I see it
Shi Jiangtao

As Xi Jinping plans Russia visit, China faces moment of reckoning on Ukraine

  • State visit to Moscow would have far-reaching implications for China’s global standing
  • Amid an urge for closer Russia ties, Beijing also needs to rebuild trust with the West

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A state visit to Moscow by Xi Jingping would have far-reaching implications for China’s global standing and its relations with the West. Photo: Reuters
Shi Jiangtao
A former diplomat, Shi Jiangtao has worked as a China reporter at the Post for more than a decade.

As the United States and its allies join hands to arm Ukraine with tanks and other heavy weapons, the tide is turning further against Moscow. Despite the risk of nuclear escalation with Russia, many Western strategists are pondering a Russian defeat and its potential global ramifications.

But Beijing clearly has a different take on the situation. Despite Moscow’s battlefield setbacks, Chinese observers generally expect the conflict to be a costly, grinding and drawn-out war between Russia and the West that could last for many more months, if not years. From China’s perspective, a “lose-lose” scenario in the Ukraine war, in which the US gets bogged down in Europe, is highly appealing and still likely.

02:51
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This appears to be in line with Beijing’s official assessment too, and helps explain China’s determination to double down on its bet on Russian President Vladimir Putin’s ability to sustain the war. For China, a protracted conflict would prove a useful distraction from Washington’s great power rivalry with Beijing.
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In an unequivocal sign of Beijing’s continued pivot to Moscow, Chinese President Xi Jinping plans to visit Russia this spring, according to a report from Russia’s official Tass news agency on Monday, citing Russia’s foreign ministry. Xi’s top foreign policy aide Wang Yi is scheduled to visit Moscow in February to make preparations for the Chinese leader’s first state visit since 2019, Russia’s Vedomosti newspaper reported.

If it goes ahead, Xi’s trip will be a milestone event in China’s diplomacy with far-reaching implications for its global standing, and its ties with the US and other major powers. Such a visit would underline Beijing’s strategic choice to side with Moscow in their geostrategic rivalry with the West and send a message of defiance.

Beijing is not expected to offer the material support that Moscow needs most, or ditch its balancing act between Russia and the US-led West, as China strives to repair its post zero-Covid economy and ease tensions with Washington over a range of issues.

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