US remains top power in Asia-Pacific, but China ‘not far behind’ as it flexes military, diplomatic muscles: study

Australian think tank Lowy Institute says ‘the age of uncontested US primacy in Asia is over’ as Beijing gains ground in trade and foreign policy

While zero-Covid weakened China’s regional influence, 2023 offers ‘window of opportunity’ to play to strengths, says project lead for annual ranking

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China displayed its military might last year through drills in the South China Sea, along the border with India and around Taiwan. Photo: Xinhua

Published: 7:30pm, 5 Feb 2023

The US is still the top power in the Asia-Pacific region but it “should not take too much comfort” in its lead over second-ranked China as Beijing’s military capabilities and diplomatic activity signal its growing assertiveness in the region, according to a new study.

In its 2023 Asia Power Index, published on Sunday, Australian think tank the Lowy Institute said while China’s overall power still lagged that of the US, it was “not far behind”. It also noted that “the age of uncontested US primacy in Asia is over”, with Washington unlikely to regain a decisive lead.

The index, published annually, rated the overall power of 26 nations in the Asia-Pacific region based on eight measures: economic capability, military capability, resilience, future resources, economic relationships, defence networks, diplomatic influence and cultural influence.

The report said that although China’s zero-Covid policy negatively affected people-to-people exchanges, business links and cultural ties with neighbouring countries, it showed its military might through exercises in the South China Sea, along the border with India and around Taiwan in response to former US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit in August.

It noted that Beijing’s interactions with foreign ministers and its efforts to build relationships with diverse political actors – particularly in Southeast Asia and the Pacific – resulted in China reclaiming diplomatic influence from the US.

“While China’s abrupt shift away from zero-Covid poses its own challenges, reopening in 2023 may be an important window of opportunity for it to regain its traditional advantages in Asia: proximity and connectivity,” said Susannah Patton, project lead for the Asia Power Index.

According to the index, China ranked first in terms of economic relationships with a score of 98.3 while the US came in second with a score of 53.7. China also came out on top in diplomatic influence, scoring 91.5 while the US scored 89.3 on the measure.

“[There is] a trend of greater reliance on China for foreign direct investment in the region,” Patton said. “China has accounted for a higher average share of foreign investment in index countries every year since 2018.”