China and US headed for long period of ‘struggle’: former diplomat
- An Gang, who spent 18 years in the Chinese foreign ministry, says the window to stabilise relations between Beijing and Washington has closed
- He identifies five areas of risk that could turn into a ‘major disaster’ including Taiwan tensions and hi-tech decoupling
“We have to step up our preparations for a full-scale struggle between China and the United States,” he wrote in an article published on Wednesday on the China-US Focus website.
It is rare for a former Chinese official to refer to China-US relations as a “struggle”. Beijing has always said it opposes using “competition” to define the relationship and criticised “zero-sum game narratives” and what it calls a “cold war mindset”.
An’s article was written in the wake of last month’s balloon incident which prompted the cancellation of US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s visit to Beijing.
Washington said the balloon’s purpose was surveillance but China has said it was merely a weather device that had gone astray.
An said that since the interruption of high-level exchanges caused by the incident, the “vicious spiral of continuous deterioration” in bilateral ties could not be stopped.
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“Not only is there no immediate prospect of a turnaround or sustained improvement in China-US relations in the sense of a major fundamental direction, but the probability of a major hazardous event is even higher,” he said.
An said struggles would only intensify in various areas of the relationship and listed five main risks that could develop into a major disaster, including tensions in the Taiwan Strait and the growing possibility of military encounters in the air and sea.
He also mentioned the spillover effects of the Ukraine war, Washington’s decoupling policies towards hi-tech industries and a reheating of the Korean peninsula security situation.
“The above five are … a clear manifestation of a huge systemic crisis that is accelerating, meaning that the China-US relationship has entered a dense minefield and may derail at any moment.”
An said US policies towards Taiwan showed an inclination to prepare for war. All Washington’s pro-Taipei moves seemed to be “forcing China to take the initiative to jump into a trap of war”.
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He predicted an increase in mutual close reconnaissance following the balloon incident, which would pose challenges for both the US and China’s technical and risk management. This could become a strategic burden and a measure of mutual exhaustion, he said.
An said the prolonged Ukraine war had accelerated US efforts to divide the world into confrontational blocs with a “free world versus authoritarian alliance” narrative which could make a re-emerging crisis on the Korean peninsula “significantly less controllable”.
The consequences of hi-tech decoupling would affect both countries on a macro and micro level, in addition to their respective foreign relations circles, An said.
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The effects would be felt in political, economic and social operations down to business and individual livelihoods, he said.
“[It] will put the world economic system at risk of fragmentation, constituting the core of a new cold war with wider and more far-reaching implications than military confrontation, thus reshaping the trajectory of human civilisation.”
An said there would be a long period of intertwined dialogue, contact and conflict between China and the US, with “competition all the time and everywhere”.
“The competition is all about wisdom, determination, and courage. Who scores more in these three areas combined will be favoured by time,” he concluded.
