China has tools to play peacemaker in Ukraine war, but it must use them ‘correctly’ and ‘keep neutral’, analysts say
- China can use diplomatic, political and economic leverage to push peace talks between Russia and Ukraine, observers say
- Beijing’s peace proposal shows its opinion ‘must be counted’ and delivers ‘weighty’ warning against nuclear weapons, defence expert says
China can use its diplomatic, political and economic leverage to play a bigger role in pushing peace talks between Russia and Ukraine to help the two sides reach a ceasefire deal, according to analysts.
“This document should be considered not only as a text devoted to a specific war, but also as Beijing’s declaration that China is a state whose opinion must be counted, or at least listened to,” said Khivrenko, who served in the Ukrainian defence ministry from 1993 to 2004.
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In the 12-point position paper, Beijing urged all parties to “avoid fanning the flames and aggravating tensions” in the hope of preventing the crisis from “deteriorating further or spiralling out of control”.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia saw “no preconditions at present” for its withdrawal from Ukraine.
Meanwhile, Ukraine and the US-led Nato criticised Beijing’s plan as unacceptably biased towards Russia.
Khivrenko said China’s warning against nuclear weapons and nuclear war was the most influential piece of the proposal, adding that the West had issued similar warnings, but they failed to achieve their “desired effect”.
“When the leader of the [People’s Republic of China] said his weighty word on this matter, the issue of Moscow’s potential use of nuclear weapons was almost immediately removed from the international agenda,” he said.
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Zhou Chenming, a researcher with the Beijing-based Yuan Wang military science and technology think tank, said China’s warning was intended to respond to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s order for his missile force to be ready to deliver tactical nuclear weapons to use against Ukraine.
Most tactical nuclear weapons are considered low-yield with smaller warheads and delivery systems intended for use on the battlefield or for a limited strike, but they still cause massive destruction.
Putin has repeatedly threatened to use nuclear weapons in his so-called special military operation in Ukraine. In February 2022, soon before invading Ukraine, Putin placed Russia’s nuclear forces at “special combat readiness” and held high-profile nuclear drills. He also warned he would resort to nuclear weapons “if the territorial integrity of our country is threatened”.
“The Russian military has deployed almost its entire inventory of conventional weapons in the fight, but once the equipment is exhausted, it’s possible that Putin would use nuclear weapons,” Zhou said.
“That’s why Beijing needs to keep neutral in this war and call on both sides to calm down.”
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Khivrenko said growing tensions with the US had kept the “no-limits” partnership between Beijing and Moscow strong.
Ni Lexiong, a professor at Shanghai University of Political Science and Law, said if China wanted to be a real “peacemaker”, it would be better to talk to both sides.
Zhou said despite the political differences between Beijing and Kyiv, China was still willing to provide diplomatic and economic help to the Ukrainian people.
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The war has forced millions of Ukrainian refugees to flee their homes in the year since Russia invaded.
Zhou said Beijing had allowed thousands of Ukrainians to live and work in mainland China.
“Almost all the Ukrainians are young women because men are not allowed to leave their war-torn motherland,” he said.
Khivrenko said the Ukrainian people considered China the most influential country in promoting peace talks and a ceasefire deal between Moscow and Kyiv.
“The [Chinese] leadership … has a fairly wide range of tools of a diplomatic, political and economic nature for this. The main thing is to use them correctly,” he said.
