Mideast plan shows China’s diplomatic strength while foreign affairs reshuffle is filled with intrigue and surprises

Observers and diplomats have voiced concerns about some promotions which were major departures from precedents and vaguely established criteria
Lack of predictability and transparency in personnel appointments will hardly help Beijing boost plummeting morale in the diplomatic service

Shi Jiangtao

Published: 6:28pm, 14 Mar 2023

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China’s brokering of a landmark peace plan between Iran and Saudi Arabia last week is a much-needed diplomatic victory for Beijing and its new foreign policy team that was unveiled at the end of the “two sessions” meeting this week.

Beijing has seized the opportunity to stick a finger in Washington’s eye by showcasing its diplomatic prowess in the Middle East, where America’s role as a security provider is under question.

However, much remains to be done to counter US-led “all-round containment, encirclement and suppression”, as Chinese President Xi Jinping put it last week, amid worrying signs that many of China’s neighbours – including the Philippines, India, South Korea and Australia – are leaning towards Washington for their security.

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China’s biggest diplomatic shake-up in over a decade, which began more than two years ago and was wrapped up on Sunday after the unveiling of a new State Council, the mainland’s cabinet, has been full of intrigue and surprises.

In the lead-up to this year’s National People’s Congress annual session, there was speculation that former foreign minister Wang Yi would be named vice-premier after being elevated last year to the Politburo, the Communist Party’s top echelon of power.

Defying an unwritten age limit of 68 for party elites, Wang, 69, then a state councillor, was retained and became Xi’s top foreign policy aide, replacing Yang Jiechi, 72, who had been the country’s most powerful diplomat in nearly a decade.

China promotes Foreign Minister Qin Gang to state councillor

Five years ago, Yang, a US expert and also a state councillor-turned-Politburo member, was rumoured to be up for appointment as China’s first vice-premier overseeing foreign policy issues since Qian Qichen stepped down in 2003.

But Yang failed in his bid for vice-premiership, a position that could have given the country’s top diplomat a bigger say in a highly centralised decision-making process. Instead, Wang was promoted to state councillor in 2018, five years after he became China’s foreign minister.

The last time China had both a vice-premier, usually a Politburo post, and a state councillor, which ranks above cabinet ministers, jointly oversee diplomacy was soon after the bloody Tiananmen Square crackdown in 1989.

Wang did not have the same luck this time. His successor, Qin Gang, 56, who became China’s foreign minister on December 30, was appointed a state councillor on Sunday.

Qin’s meteoric rise in less than two years – from former ministry spokesman and deputy foreign minister in charge of protocol and European affairs to China’s ambassador to the US and then the country’s second top-ranking diplomat – has been unprecedented.

With Wang expected to retire before the next party congress, Qin, who is believed to be close to Xi despite his relative inexperience in handling the complex US-China ties, is in pole position to become China’s top diplomat for many years to come.

In another upset, Song Tao, who made a comeback from semi-retirement in December to head China’s Taiwan Affairs Office, failed on Friday to secure a vice-chairmanship of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference, the country’s top political advisory body, as widely speculated. The role could have given the 67-year-old veteran diplomat who formerly led the party’s International Liaison Department the rank of deputy national leader and a retirement age beyond 70.

A protégé of Xi, Song was once Wang’s top rival for Yang’s job as director of the Central Foreign Affairs Commission’s general office, but he lost his elite Central Committee seat at the party’s national congress in October.

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But the biggest surprise, arguably, involved Le Yucheng, a former rising star and a top contender for the foreign minister job until he was suddenly reassigned to a lesser government position in June.

It is still not clear what happened to Le, a trained Russia expert and, since 2018, Wang’s top deputy for the ministry’s daily affairs, but his removal as the front runner to succeed Wang effectively changed the race and Beijing’s entire reshuffle.

While many have linked Le’s de facto demotion to Beijing’s miscalculation over Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine, others point to peer rivalry and internal politics.

Observers and diplomats have voiced concerns about some of the surprises, which were major departures from precedents and vaguely established criteria guiding the reshuffle of top diplomats.

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While promotions are seen to be based increasingly on political allegiance and loyalty to the leadership rather than age, seniority and competence, the lack of predictability and transparency in personnel appointments will hardly help Beijing boost plummeting morale in the diplomatic service.

That is probably the last thing Beijing needs when dealing with unprecedented international resistance in the post-coronavirus world.