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China Diplomacy

Summit a ‘major diplomatic event’ to boost China’s ties with Central Asian nations amid Ukraine, Afghanistan concerns

Leaders of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan invited to first China-Central Asia summit
Presence of ethnic Russians in the five countries has triggered fears Moscow could target their territory next, analyst says

Belt and Road Initiative

Minnie ChanandLaura Zhou

Published: 6:00am, 16 May 2023

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China is expected to further boost ties with Central Asia when President Xi Jinping hosts his counterparts from the region amid uncertainties stemming from Russia’s war in Ukraine and increasing hostility from the West.

Beijing has hailed the two-day summit of nations in the vast and geo-strategically important neighbouring region on Thursday and Friday as the “first major diplomatic event that China hosts this year”.

The meeting in Xian, in the northwestern province of Shaanxi, coincides with the leaders’ summit of Group of 7 industrialised democracies in Hiroshima, Japan, starting on Friday. The leaders of the United States, Japan, Canada, Germany, France, Italy and Britain are expected to show unity against China and Russia at the G7 summit.

The inaugural summit between Xi and his counterparts from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan also comes weeks after Xi’s long-anticipated phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, raising speculation that Beijing might present itself as a reliable security partner to a region that has traditionally relied on Russian security guarantees.

Beijing has long seen Central Asia as a frontier critical for the country’s trade expansion and energy security, and for stability in Xinjiang, the far western region where its treatment of Uygur Muslims has been among the most contentious issues between China and the West.

China has been seeking closer ties with Central Asia, and in September Xi surprised many when he visited Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan on his first trip abroad since the early days of the Covid-19 pandemic.

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Zhu Yongbiao, a professor at Lanzhou University’s school of politics and international relations, said strong ties with Central Asia were now high on China’s diplomatic agenda.

“Before that, China’s cooperation with Central Asian countries was mostly on bilateral levels or under multilateral platforms such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation. Now China wants to make clear once again the importance it attaches to ties with Central Asia as a whole,” Zhu said.

“China is the only big power in the world that has such a mechanism for leadership with Central Asia. In comparison, leaders of the United States never set foot in Central Asia.”

Beijing has said the summit will be “a milestone in the history” of China and Central Asia. According to Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin, “important political documents” will be signed by the six leaders and the summit will “open a new era of cooperation” between the two sides.

Zhu said sensitive issues, such as the ongoing Ukraine war and the crisis in Afghanistan, would also be discussed when the leaders meet in Xian.

“China and the five Central Asian nations hold close views and positions over international and regional issues from conflicts between Russia and Ukraine, Afghanistan and anti-terrorism, but further coordination is still needed,” Zhu said.

China and the three Central Asian states of Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan and Tajikistan all neighbour Afghanistan. They share concerns over a rising threat from extremists since the US’ chaotic withdrawal and the Taliban resuming control of the war-torn nation.

Russia’s waning influence

The five Central Asian nations have traditionally been seen as part of Russia’s sphere of influence, but none have backed Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. The impact of sanctions on the Russian economy has raised further doubts about whether Russia can retain its grip on the region.

Blinken eyes US inroads in Central Asia as Ukraine rattles nerves

The war in Ukraine has also made Beijing more determined to boost its ties with neighbouring countries as it faces mounting pressure from the US and Europe, which have been dismayed by the “no limits” relationship between Beijing and Moscow.

Beijing had been more focused on ties with Southeast Asia, said Wang Jian, director of the Institute of International Relations at the Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, but Central Asia remained “very important” to China’s security.

“China is paying close attention to Central Asia, especially after the Ukraine war,” he said. “China wants to strengthen relations with the region.”

In an article published in the Ministry of Natural Resources’ Pacific Journal last month, Wang Jian said Central Asia was key to the security of northwest China, and the Ukraine war had affected regional stability.

Central Asia’s hopes of using China as hedge against Russia face rough road

“The rapid increase in food costs and energy and mineral prices because of global inflation will affect the region’s internal stability, which may trigger colour revolution,” Wang wrote. “As China’s close neighbours, the changes in the security situation in Russia and Central Asia will have an important impact on the security interests of China’s northern and northwest frontiers.”

In the decade since Xi launched the Belt and Road Initiative, trade between China and the five Central Asian countries has grown rapidly. It reached US$70.2 billion last year, up 40 per cent year on year.

One project upgraded in 2014 was the Central Asia-China gas pipeline, also known as the Turkmenistan-China gas pipeline, which runs over 1,800km from Gedaim, on the Turkmenistan-Uzbekistan border, to Khorgas, in China’s Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region. The original US$7.3 billion project began operation in 2009 and it was upgraded with the construction of a fourth line in 2014 as part of the belt and road to feed China’s appetite for cleaner energy. The pipeline network has delivered more than 400 billion cubic metres of natural gas to China in the past 12 years, Xinhua reported.

Russia has long had strong security and economic influences on Central Asia. Last year, Russian paratroopers were sent to Kazakhstan under the auspices of the Collective Security Treaty Organisation – a group of countries comprising Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan and Armenia – to crack down on protests triggered by rising gas prices.

Even though the five Central Asian nations have not criticised Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and abstained from a vote condemning it at the United Nations General Assembly in February, they have not given explicit support to Moscow’s actions either.

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Wang Jian said the Central Asian nations were attempting to maintain a “diplomatic distance” from Russia, and the presence of ethnic Russians in the five countries had triggered fears that Moscow could target their territory next.

“Some Central Asian countries are actually taking moves to reduce Russia’s influence,” he said, adding that Western nations, especially the US, were stepping up efforts to increase their influence in the region.

Challenges from the US

Observers said China’s effort to boost ties would encounter stiff competition from the US, which was also stepping up regional engagement.

The US has used the annual C5+1 summit between its secretary of state and the foreign ministers of the five Central Asian nations to expand its influence since 2015.

At the most recent summit, in Astana, the capital of Kazakhstan, in February, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the war presented the US and Central Asia with common challenges, and the Central Asian nations expressed concerns about the spillover effects of sanctions against Russia on their economies.

‘Putin Doctrine’ disaffection seen to ‘opens doors’ for China in Central Asia

“I’d like to say that, indeed, Kazakhstan has very historic ties with both – with Russia and Ukraine,” Kazakh Foreign Minister Mukhtar Tleuberdi said following talks with Blinken on February 28. “Our economies have been interconnected for a long, long time, and that’s why this situation is definitely quite heavy for us, for our economy, and we’re trying to avoid any negative effects from the sanctions.

“But at the same time, we’re trying to … avoid any possibilities for evasion of sanctions by Russian or even by any foreign companies.”

Blinken announced US$20 million in economic aid for the region, in addition to US$25 million offered last year, and a further US$5 million for an economic and energy programme to boost regional connectivity.

Did the SCO summit signal a Pax Sinica emerging in Central Asia?

At September’s SCO summit, Xi announced that China would provide 150 million yuan (US$24.37 million) in humanitarian aid to SCO members in need, and China has been contributing heavily to regional infrastructure projects for years.

But observers said the US was a strong rival to China in the region.

“The US attempts to boost economic ties with the Central Asian countries, forming a united front based on its C5+1 diplomatic platform to further isolate Russia and counter China’s [Belt and Road Initiative],” said Sun Yu, a Central Asia researcher and a former visiting scholar at Anjijan State University in Uzbekistan.

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“As close neighbours that are highly dependent on Russia in economic development, the five former Soviet republics understand that they need to carefully weigh each others’ national interests when dealing with superpower competitions between Russia, the US and China, and avoid offending any party.”

Sun said state-owned Chinese enterprises used to be the main drivers of belt and road projects but, following the Covid-19 pandemic, Beijing was now encouraging more private enterprise involvement.

To keep promoting “high-quality” belt and road cooperation, Sun said Beijing would come up with preferential policies to encourage private enterprises to play a bigger role in projects in Central Asia.

“Chinese private companies are more efficient, well-managed, well-prepared and dare to take risks,” Sun said. “It’s very likely that Beijing will let them take a bigger role in [belt and road] investment in the region.”