The strategic dilemma for China as neighbours move closer to the US

The Aukus submarines deal, Seoul’s warmer relations with Tokyo and tighter Philippine ties with the US all pose a challenge to Beijing

China does not want its neighbours to side with America, but trying to stop them could bring about the thing it most wants to prevent

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Australia’s Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, pictured with his British counterpart Rishi Sunak and US President Joe Biden, at an Aukus meeting to discuss plans to supply Australia with nuclear-powered submarines. Photo: PA Wire/dpa

Published: 10:30pm, 18 Mar 2023

China’s efforts to limit the impact of its deteriorating relationship with the United States are facing a further challenge as several neighbouring countries move closer to Washington despite Beijing’s efforts to mend ties.

Australia and the Philippines have recently moved to strengthen their military relationship with the US and the thaw in relations between two more of its allies – Japan and South Korea – have left Beijing with a dilemma, diplomatic analysts say.

Beijing has expressed concern about these developments – all of which are a boost to the US strategy of using its network of allies to counter China – but has tried not to offend its neighbours.

Australia this week confirmed its plan to buy nuclear-powered submarines under the three-way Aukus pact with Britain and the US, while Yoon Suk-yeol became the first South Korean president to visit Japan in 12 years in what Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida called a “big step” towards detente.

Meanwhile, the Philippines has resumed joint patrols with the American military in the South China Sea, granted its ally access to four more bases and announced the biggest ever joint drill with the US next month.

George Magnus, a research associate at Oxford University’s China Centre, said it was understandable that Beijing was deeply concerned about “an increasingly militarised Asia, and one in which it had few friends that really mattered”.

Noting the recent unusually harsh remarks by President Xi Jinping about US-led “containment, encirclement and suppression”, Magnus said it had become increasingly untenable for China’s neighbours to “stay aloof or profess neutrality”.

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