Could US-China ties actually improve if Joe Biden is re-elected?
- Both sides of politics ‘seem to agree on getting tougher on China’, analysts say
- But if Biden wins, he could try to seek a ‘breakthrough’ in the troubled relationship
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While the first primaries are still months away, the 2024 election is expected to unfold at a time of deepening political polarisation in the United States, and when there is bipartisan consensus on taking a tougher stand on China.
Key issues such as inflation, abortion rights and social security are likely to dominate the concerns of American voters. But analysts say that as the race intensifies, the candidates may try to gain ground by claiming to be the strongest on China, which the Pentagon has called the top challenge to US national security interests.
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“In the logic of US politics, the presidential election is primarily a matter of domestic politics and does not have much impact on its relations with China,” said Wang Yong, an international relations professor at Peking University.
“But given the heightened tensions between the two powers, both Democrats and Republicans – amid their own vigorous competition – seem to agree on getting tougher on China,” Wang said. “This is a spillover from domestic politics and it will have a negative impact on Sino-US relations.”
The relationship has deteriorated in recent years, a situation made worse when a suspected Chinese surveillance balloon flew over the US in January and by Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen’s meeting with US House Speaker Kevin McCarthy in California earlier this month.
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Meanwhile, China has sought to forge closer ties elsewhere in the past month as it hosted leaders from France, the European Union, Brazil and Southeast Asian neighbours such as Singapore and Malaysia.
With the American election season looming, “US-China relations will become more complicated and there is less optimism that interaction between the two sides will improve”, according to Pang Zhongying, a professor of international affairs with Sichuan University.
He said the Republican candidates and eventual nominee would try to create some distance from the Biden administration by putting forward a stronger position on China.
“The Biden administration will continue its current policy towards China, and will possibly be tougher,” Pang said. “But he may also consider [taking measures] to improve US-China relations so that he can claim to have managed relations with China well.”
One concern for Biden is his age, though his team has said he is fit for office. Biden became the oldest US president when he was elected in 2021 at 78, and if re-elected he will be 86 by the time he leaves office.
Some have questioned whether he will be a tough enough leader to make unpopular decisions, such as those on China policy.
“If Biden wins, it will be his last term as president and he will need to build some legacies,” Pang said. “A breakthrough in the relationship with China could be one option.”
