As Philippines moves closer to US, will region change tack on China?
- Manila would ‘inevitably be collateral damage’ in a conflict in the Taiwan Strait, which explains pivot to Washington, observer says
- But it is not expected to result in a significant change in approach on Beijing by other Southeast Asian nations
02:55
US touts ‘ironclad’ commitment to the Philippines amid rising tensions in South China Sea
Biden told Marcos that the United States remained “ironclad in our commitment to the defence of the Philippines, including in the South China Sea”. “We are facing new challenges and I couldn’t think of a better partner to have than you,” he said.
The incident prompted Manila to call on Beijing to stop its “aggressive action”, while China’s foreign ministry said it was a “premeditated provocation” by the Philippine vessels.
A White House statement released after Monday’s talks made no mention of the incident but said Biden and Marcos had underscored their “unwavering commitment to freedom of navigation and overflight in the South China Sea”. The leaders also affirmed the “importance of maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait as an indispensable element of global security and prosperity”.
02:53
Philippines rebukes Beijing for 'dangerous manoeuvres' in South China Sea
Willoughby, a member of the Board of Trustees of the Foundation for the National Interest, a Manila-based think tank, said the meeting “certainly boded well” for the alliance but that there was more for both sides to do.
She pointed to the Philippines completing a modernisation of its armed forces and establishing a maritime-focused national security strategy, and the US backing up its economic commitments to complement its renewed pledge on the military front.
“It’s inevitable that these moves are in view of a Taiwan contingency,” she said. “Regardless, reaffirming the alliance benefits the allies and regional security.”
While other Southeast Asian countries would likely welcome – and benefit from – a stronger relationship between the US and the Philippines, analysts say it will not lead to a significant change in approach on Beijing, especially on the South China Sea and Taiwan.
04:39
Taiwan residents living within sight of mainland China voice concerns over live-fire drills
Dylan Loh, an assistant professor in foreign policy at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, said it was anticipated that Manila would edge closer to Washington under the Marcos administration.
“I do think the US will certainly welcome Marcos’ embrace as the Philippines would prove critical in any Taiwan contingency,” he said.
“For the rest of Southeast Asia, they are unlikely to change their calculus on Taiwan and the South China Sea and each of the countries in the region will make their own decisions based on what they think works for them.”
Those countries have largely tried to balance ties between Washington and Beijing as rivalry between the two powers intensifies, since most have deep trade ties with China.
China and Philippines look to boost communications to manage dispute
Aristyo Rizka Darmawan, an international law expert at the University of Indonesia, noted that the Philippines and the US had historically been strong allies and a closer relationship was “of course not new for the region”.
He said policies in the region towards China were typically shaped by factors including economic interests, threat perceptions and domestic politics.
Attitudes towards China would not change “dramatically” but Southeast Asian nations appeared to be leaning more towards the US on the maritime front, he said, and closer US-Philippine ties also meant there could be more engagement between regional navies and the US military.
Darmawan noted, however, that some nations would be cautious about an increased American military presence in the region, including Indonesia and Malaysia, and that Washington would have to be “very careful not to make the neighbours uncomfortable” as it forged closer ties with Manila.
“In allowing the US to have access to more military bases on its own soil, the Philippines does seem to become increasingly an outlier in Asean,” he said, noting that Philippine bases could be used in the event of a Taiwan conflict.
“In this sense, an Asean country is going to be directly involved in a US-China war and this would have ramifications for Asean to act collectively.”
Ngeow said Southeast Asian governments were aware that the Philippines was taking a “relatively risky, although understandable path” but they would likely continue to be “extremely cautious” on the Taiwan issue and be respectful of Beijing’s so-called red line regarding the self-ruled island.
