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Why China may be reluctant to get too deeply involved in Sudan peace efforts

  • Despite long-standing Chinese ties to the North African nation and huge investments, observers see little appetite in Beijing for direct intervention
  • Analysts point to factors such as tensions with the West, China’s support for the previous regime and Sudan’s declining importance as an oil exporter

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Smoke billows in Sudanese capital Khartoum in fighting  between forces loyal to rival generals. Photo: AFP
China may be reluctant to get involved in efforts to end the fighting in Sudan despite previous interventions in the region, observers said.

More than 500 people have been killed and thousands wounded in Sudan since April 15, when fighting broke out between forces loyal to army chief Abdel Fattah al-Burhan and paramilitary forces commander Mohamed Hamdan Dagalo, a former ally.

Some observers believe China may try to repeat its role in efforts to end the civil war in Ethiopia, where thousands of people were killed and millions displaced by fighting between the federal government and the Tigray People’s Liberation Front.
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Beijing organised a Horn of Africa Peace Conference in the Ethiopian capital convened by its special envoy to the region, and supported the African Union’s efforts to mediate. However, it did not play a direct role in negotiations that ended with the signing of a peace treaty in November.

David Shinn, a former US ambassador to Ethiopia, and a professor at George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs, said: “I am not aware of any active engagement that Xue Bing [Beijing’s special envoy for Horn of Africa affairs] or China had in bringing an end to the conflict in Tigray. If there was active engagement, the Ethiopian or Chinese government could easily say what it was.”

But he also said Beijing would be reluctant to get as deeply involved in the current Sudan crisis as it was during the conflict in Darfur in western Sudan or the civil war in South Sudan, adding: “I have seen no evidence that China desires to get directly involved in efforts to resolve the Sudan crisis.”

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