Will latest high-level talks help open a new chapter in US-China relations?
- Both sides say the meeting between Wang Yi and Jake Sullivan in Vienna was ‘candid and constructive’ but analysts remain cautious about where it will lead
- High-level contacts were largely suspended after the US shot down an alleged spy balloon. But the White House has signalled its willingness to move on
Both sides described the Wang-Sullivan talks as “candid” and “constructive”, with Beijing adding that they included “discussions on removing obstacles in China-US relations and stabilising the relationship”.
The White House said the talks, held on Wednesday and Thursday in Vienna, were “substantive” covering key issues such as Taiwan, “global and regional security issues” and Russia’s war against Ukraine.
It was Wang’s first meeting with Sullivan since he took on the top foreign policy role and marked the highest-level dialogue between the two countries since last year’s Bali meeting.
“This meeting was part of ongoing efforts to maintain open lines of communication and responsibly manage competition,” the White House said. “The two sides agreed to maintain this important strategic channel of communication to advance these objectives, building on the engagement between [Biden and Xi] in Bali.”
China’s state news agency Xinhua said Wang “fully expounded China’s solemn position on the Taiwan question” and added that the pair had discussed “the situation in the Asia-Pacific region, Ukraine and other international and regional issues of common interest”.
“Both sides agreed to continue to make good use of this strategic communication channel,” it added.
Global Times, a state-run tabloid, reported that Wang had stressed that Taiwan was an “untouchable red line” and urged the US not to oversimplify the bilateral relation into a “competition”.
“The Chinese side has also called on the US side to remove the unreasonable restrictions and interferences to people-to-people exchanges,” the report added, citing an unnamed Chinese official.
According to a senior Biden administration official who briefed reporters on condition of anonymity, both Wang and Sullivan recognised that the balloon saga was “unfortunate”, but the White House was “looking to move beyond” recent tensions.
The official said both sides agreed to “reestablish standard, normal channels of communications”, and Sullivan had stressed that Washington did not seek conflict or confrontation.
On Taiwan, the official said Sullivan repeated Washington’s commitment to its “one-China policy” and said it did not want any unilateral change to the “status quo”, adding that the two sides had managed the issue “for over 40 years without conflict”.
The US official said the White House expected the two sides to continue engaging in the coming months but Wang and Sullivan had not discussed possible dates for a rescheduled visit by Blinken.
Although it remains unclear which side initiated the Vienna talks, Zhu Feng, a professor of international relations at Nanjing University, said the meeting was “timely and necessary”.
“It was not a total surprise and it’s good to see there is consensus on the necessity of resuming direct communications and dialogue for the sake of crisis management and exploring possible opportunities for cooperation,” he said.
Zhu expressed concern about the lack of an effective crisis-management mechanism but said the fact that the meeting took place amid the current tensions underlined Beijing’s pragmatism.
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“That’s what diplomacy is about. Neither side can dwell on finger-pointing and verbal sparring. Both China and the US share concerns about many pressing issues, including the global implications of a prolonged war in Ukraine,” he said.
He said despite the lack of progress on Taiwan and Ukraine, “it is still necessary for both sides to maintain regular and timely communication”.
Chong Ja Ian, professor of political science at the National University of Singapore, said the meeting indicated that Beijing was “concerned enough to alter their position” and served as a “starting point”.
“It could eventually lead to more meetings among senior officials, but that process is difficult to predict,” he added.
Beijing has reportedly been resisting efforts by the White House to arrange a call between Biden and Xi, although the US president said on Wednesday that there had been progress in this area and he thought “it’ll work out”.
The Vienna meeting may have helped prepare for such a conversation – previous calls were preceded by similar meetings between Sullivan and Wang’s predecessor Yang Jiechi – and although Xi publicly accused the US of “all-round containment, encirclement and suppression” against China in March there have been other signs that the two sides are talking again.
The White House has also floated the possibility of Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo visiting China at some point, while the Pentagon is seeking a meeting between Defence Secretary Lloyd Austin and his Chinese counterpart Li Shangfu during the Shangri-La Dialogue in Singapore next month.
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US trade representative Katherine Tai is also planning to meet Wang, the commerce minister, in Detroit later this month, according to Bloomberg, but Beijing has so far refused to confirm if any of these exchanges will go ahead.
Alfred Wu, an associate professor at the National University of Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, said the Wang-Sullivan meeting had been “helpful”, but was cautious about the prospect of further meetings.
“Both sides realised that a warlike scenario could happen. They are trying to maintain some level of communication to avoid that scenario,” he said.
Chong added that while the meeting may allow some room for cooperation, there was “nothing deterministic” about the exchanges.
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Zhu also said it was unlikely that Biden and Xi would talk soon, given Beijing’s ambivalence about further exchanges and a hardening of positions on both sides.
“We’ll have to see when and if Blinken can come to visit China. From China’s perspective, the upcoming G7 summit and Biden’s planned visit to the South Pacific islands are part of Washington’s Indo-Pacific strategy that is clearly aimed at further alienating and suppressing China,” he said.
Additional reporting by Dewey Sim