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Just over half of mainland Chinese people back full-scale war to take control of Taiwan, poll finds

  • Public attitudes are mixed, with majority support for various coercive methods but only 1 per cent wanting war right now, survey finds
  • Almost a quarter of respondents willing to accept different political systems, ‘with unification not necessarily being the end game’

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Nationwide survey seen as possible indication that armed unification is not Beijing’s only choice, so the US “should also not design its China policies as if the reunification clock is really ticking”. Photo: CNA
Just over half of mainland Chinese support a full-scale war to take control of Taiwan, according to a new survey that offers a rare insight into public opinion as Beijing takes an increasingly assertive stance towards the island.

The survey of 1,824 people found mixed public attitudes, with 55 per cent in favour of “launching a unification war to take back Taiwan entirely”, with a third opposing it and the remainder saying they were unsure.

The study, by academics Adam Y. Liu, from the National University of Singapore, and Xiaojun Li, from NYU Shanghai, was published in the Journal of Contemporary China on Monday.

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Even though authoritarian leaders did not come to power through competitive elections, they still had incentives to ensure their policies aligned with prevailing public opinion to avoid an internal backlash, the authors wrote.

“This is particularly true for China, where nationalism serves as a key pillar of regime legitimacy, especially on issues of sovereignty and territorial integrity,” they added.
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However, analysts said the authorities could use “sophisticated means” to shape public opinion, potentially calming more extreme voices.

The nationwide survey was conducted in late 2020 and early 2021, when respondents were asked a series of questions about their attitudes towards Taiwan and their favoured options as things stand now.

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