US President Joe Biden was scheduled to visit Papua New Guinea this month, and he would have been the first sitting US president to do so, but the plans were cancelled because of debt ceiling negotiations in Washington.

The eleventh-hour cancellation was disappointing for residents of the Pacific nation and analysts have warned that it may raise concerns that domestic battles in the US could hamper its engagement with the region.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken went instead, arriving in Papua New Guinea on Monday to discuss a range of issues from trade to regional security with Pacific island leaders.

Blinken also signed a defence pact with Papua New Guinea on Monday, an agreement that will see the two nations share technical expertise and “better patrol” the seas together.

With the new security deal, Papua New Guinea was “elevating” its relationship with Washington, Prime Minister James Marape said at the signing ceremony.

Corey Bell, a researcher at the University of Technology Sydney’s Australia-China Relations Institute, said the increase in US consular presence in the region – including plans to base an ambassador in Tonga – was a “strong symbol to the island and the region of its growing status and importance” to Washington.

Alan Tidwell, director of the Centre for Australian, New Zealand and Pacific Studies at Georgetown University, said Washington’s recent moves were “significant” and that they echoed commitments the US made during a summit between Biden and Pacific island leaders last September.

“A great deal of the history of our world is going to be written in the Indo-Pacific over the coming years and decades. And the Pacific islands are a critical voice in shaping that future,” Biden said. “And that’s why my administration has made it a priority to strengthen our partnership with your countries.”

US must catch up with China in Pacific islands outreach: Biden adviser

During a stopover in Singapore this month, Jung Pak, deputy assistant secretary at the US Department of State’s Bureau of East Asian and Pacific Affairs, said the Biden administration had displayed a “huge amount of interest [in] and commitment [to]” the Pacific islands.

“It’s in all our interests to be closely knitted together … and to make sure that we have a latticework of groupings and friends and allies to make sure that we have inclusive and sustainable economic growth and stability throughout the region.”

With its new embassy in Tonga, the US is looking to buttress the “rules-based order” and “democratic values that it sees as important to global peace and prosperity”, said Mihai Sora, a research fellow in the Pacific Islands Programme at Australia’s Lowy Institute.

He added that the Pacific islands were a “vital element” of the US Indo-Pacific strategy because of their vast ocean territories and strategic locations, making the region a crucial transit point for trade and military operations.

Tonga in particular is important to Washington as it lies along the maritime channel connecting Australia and the US, according to Bell. He noted that as China made inroads in the Pacific, Tonga “might be considered one of those that could come up for play”.

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China’s proposed security deal with Pacific islands falls short as Wang Yi tours region

China’s proposed security deal with Pacific islands falls short as Wang Yi tours region

Other observers have warned that a semi-regular Chinese military presence in Tonga could be a threat to Australian and American ships and allow for the collection of sensitive intelligence.

China’s advances in the Pacific have become a key concern for Washington. A 16-page document outlining the US strategy in the Pacific noted that “pressure and economic coercion by China” risked undermining the peace and security of the region.

Bell suggested that the US had been cooperating more with its regional allies in an effort to counteract China.

The Pacific islands are divided into three groups – Micronesia, Melanesia and Polynesia. Traditionally, the US has focused on the first group while relying on Australia and New Zealand for the remaining two in diplomatic and military affairs.

But the move to open a new embassy in Tonga – which falls within Polynesia – “is more evidence of a lot more cooperation between the US and its partners”, Bell said.

“The shock in the wake of the Solomon Islands’ security deal with China is probably one of the key impetuses behind this push.”

When asked last week about the defence agreement that the US was expected to sign with Papua New Guinea, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin said China “does not object to normal exchanges and cooperation between relevant parties and Pacific island countries”. But he added that Beijing opposed “bringing geopolitical contestation” into the Pacific region by any country.

China pledges to boost ties with Pacific Islands’ law enforcement

Chinese state-run tabloid Global Times has said that Washington’s moves in the region were aimed at Beijing. “The US’ efforts to enhance its presence in the Pacific region are only pursuing its own strategic goal of countering China,” it said, urging Pacific nations to make “wise and pragmatic choices”.

Qian – who was formerly China’s ambassador to Fiji – has also met key officials from Papua New Guinea, Vanuatu and Samoa in recent months.

But he said China might have “overplayed its hand” in trying to drive a multi-state security pact on the back of its success in the Solomon Islands.

“It mistook Pacific countries’ enthusiasm for benefiting from US-China competition for enthusiasm for China replacing or partly replacing the security roles of Australia and the US in the region.”

If the level of development in the Pacific remained low, it would reflect on the failures of the US and Australia, and that would mean greater opportunities for China, he added.

Bell said that Pacific nations would always be open to aid from China as well as security cooperation that was “not too defence-oriented”.

“The key for China is not to make those big premature lurches on security, which can undermine trust and alarm other nations in the region who are not on board, especially when there is little clarity about China’s security ambitions in the region,” Bell said.

He noted that China also faced disadvantages in building strong people-to-people relations. For example, nations such as Tonga have close family and migration links with Australia and New Zealand, while Beijing might need more time and effort to build ties with the Pacific.

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New images reveal scale of damage after volcano eruption in the Pacific off Tonga

New images reveal scale of damage after volcano eruption in the Pacific off Tonga

Tidwell, the Georgetown professor, pointed out that Pacific leaders had accused the Chinese government of advancing its interests through “corrupt means”.

“The challenge for China is to be seen as cooperative with a range of other interests. The US, Australia, Japan, South Korea, Germany, the UK and Canada are all cooperating in their assistance in the Pacific. It’s only China that refuses to do so,” Tidwell said.

Wang Huiyao, founder of Beijing-based think tank Centre for China and Globalisation, said the Pacific islands – like any other region in the world – would be important to world powers such as the US and China.

He stressed that there were “no limits” for countries to invest or cooperate with Pacific nations. “It’s a free world. If they want to cooperate with China or the US or with any other country, it’s their choice,” he said.

Wang Yiwei, an international relations professor at Renmin University of China, added that Beijing welcomed investments from the US and the world in the Pacific region “but healthy competition [would be] better than hedging or balancing strategic calculations at the cost of the South Pacific”.

“Time will tell who is really [there to] help and who is not,” he said.