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Beijing’s peace envoy Li Hui served as China’s ambassador to Russia for a decade. Photo: EPA-EFE

Chinese envoy’s Europe trip a ‘search for common ground’ on Ukraine war, analysts say

  • Beijing’s special envoy for Eurasian affairs Li Hui wraps up 12-day tour to Russia, Ukraine and four other countries on mission to push peace plan
  • Visit not about rallying support but bridging ‘very big’ gap between Chinese and European views on the conflict, according to professor
China’s special envoy for Eurasian affairs Li Hui wrapped up a 12-day European tour that took him to Ukraine, Poland, France, Germany, Brussels and Russia on a mission to make clear Beijing’s position on the Ukraine war.
Observers said the main purpose of Li’s trip, which concluded on Friday, appeared to be a search for common ground between China and Europe in their approaches towards the war, and while his talks were unlikely to bring about a ceasefire, the tour had raised Beijing’s profile as a peace broker in the conflict.
Li’s first stop was Kyiv, where he met Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelensky and other key officials. He told them there was no panacea for the war and urged all parties to create conditions for peace talks.

Ukraine’s foreign minister told Li that Kyiv would not accept any proposals for ending the war that involved losing territory or freezing the conflict, according to the country’s foreign ministry.

Li’s visit came less than a month after a highly anticipated call between Zelensky and Chinese President Xi Jinping.

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China to send envoy to Ukraine after Xi and Zelensky hold first call since Russian invasion

China to send envoy to Ukraine after Xi and Zelensky hold first call since Russian invasion

The Chinese envoy, who served as Beijing’s ambassador to Russia for a decade, ended his trip in Moscow, where Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov welcomed China’s “balanced” position on the crisis.

The two countries also pledged to boost ties and improve communications on a political solution to the war.

Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said on Monday that Beijing would continue to “encourage the international community to find the broadest common understandings” and contribute to a “political settlement to the Ukraine crisis”.

“At present, the Ukraine crisis is still at a critical juncture,” she said.

Experts said Beijing would be pleased with the results of Li’s trip, but they also struck a cautionary note about the chances of a breakthrough deal any time soon.

China’s peace envoy pushes political settlement for Ukraine in Moscow meetings

“Li Hui merely serves as a forerunner in paving the way for greater, more substantive, involvement by the Chinese leadership in the future to broker peace,” said James Char, a research fellow with the China programme at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore.

He said the prospect of the war ending soon was “unlikely” as the two sides disagreed about the territory that had been occupied and whether to freeze the conflict.

Sourabh Gupta, a senior fellow at the Institute for China-America Studies in Washington, said the expectations for Li’s visit to Europe were low, and “he certainly did not exceed them”.

However, that should not be viewed as a failure, according to Gupta. “To the contrary, the basic purpose of the visit, which was served, was to formally familiarise his counterparts with China’s 12-point position … and offer China’s good offices,” he said.

“The purpose was not to bring back quick results, which in any case is not feasible at this time.”

Beijing in February put forward a vague peace proposal that called for a ceasefire and peace talks, among other things.

“At this time, Li’s trip was primarily a familiarisation exercise and an occasion to hear out the views of his European counterparts, and in this regard the basic objective was accomplished,” Gupta added.

Alfred Wu, an associate professor at the National University of Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, suggested that the visit would give Beijing some credibility, especially on the back of recent interactions between Xi and leaders from Russia and Ukraine.

He added that Li’s six-leg tour was intended to bridge the gap between the European and Chinese approaches towards finding a solution to the war.

“My own feeling is that the gap between Europe and China is very, very big,” Wu said. “It’s not about how to rally support from Europe but to mitigate the differences between China and Europe.”

China peace envoy told again Beijing must push Moscow to end Ukraine invasion

Wang Yiwei, an international relations professor at Renmin University in Beijing, said the trip proved that China was “actively mediating” and that there were positive signs of Ukraine slowly warming up to Beijing’s efforts.

“There is a certain consensus now. After the trip, Ukraine now feels that China is not what they have imagined, and that China is not on the side of Russia and is indeed neutral,” he said.

China has been trying to portray itself as a neutral party in the conflict, but Western nations have been sceptical of its efforts because of Beijing’s close ties with Moscow and its reluctance to condemn Russia’s actions.

Wang said he was hopeful that China’s efforts would prove to be successful, and that the two countries would eventually move towards peace talks.

But Gupta noted that China was a “marginal player” within the European security architecture, so its capacity to underwrite a peace deal in Ukraine was limited.

“The only instance in which China could potentially play an outsized role is if the portents for a cessation of hostilities or a ceasefire [are] high and key Western European players are willing to rein Kyiv in and deliver it to the negotiating table,” he said.

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Russia unleashes rare daytime strikes on Ukrainian capital Kyiv in new wave of attack

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Gupta said Li’s trip would not make or break China’s status as an “honest broker”, nor would it sway Europeans one way or another on Beijing’s peacemaking efforts.

“All told, China came out with a better look, albeit just marginally, from its diplomatic foray into European peacemaking. And there are many chapters to be written as yet on the overall peacemaking front,” he said.

Reuters on Tuesday quoted Ukraine’s chief diplomatic adviser Ihor Zhovkva as saying that the only way to end the war would be with Ukraine’s peace plan, which required the full withdrawal of Russian troops.

“There cannot be a Brazilian peace plan, a Chinese peace plan, a South African peace plan when you are talking about the war in Ukraine,” Zhovkva said.

Gupta said if the view in Europe was that China should use its economic leverage to compel Russia to withdraw from Ukraine, it would remain “just a pipe dream”.

Poland pushes Chinese peace envoy for Russian withdrawal

Citing Western officials, The Wall Street Journal reported last week that Li’s message in Europe was that countries should urge an immediate ceasefire and leave Russia in possession of the territories it now occupied in Ukraine.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba rejected the report, saying he had contacted relevant European officials in the countries Li visited, and “none of them” confirmed that Li had proposed recognising the Russian-occupied territories.

In the report, a diplomat was quoted as saying that one of China’s main interests was ensuring that Russia did not lose the war.

Wu said Li’s – and China’s – position was within expectations, but he believed Europe would reject any proposal for Moscow to keep occupied territory.

“For Europe, the bottom line is very clear. This is an invasion and Russia should withdraw from Ukraine,” he said. “China made its position much clearer and the differences between Europe and China have become larger out of this visit.”

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