Is this the hoped-for thaw in US-China relations or a new era of managing differences?
- After recent diplomatic and military incidents, deep mutual distrust remains between the superpowers
- Analysts are not optimistic about relations being repaired in the short term given the pressing US presidential election cycle
Instead, they say, the two powers might be entering a new reality in which engagement is aimed only at managing differences where interests overlap.
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“But neither side is setting its sights very high,” said Wilder, a former CIA China analyst and White House official.
Shi Yinhong, an international relations professor at Renmin University in Beijing, said recent developments did not equate to China and the United States moving towards a substantive and clear improvement in their relations.
“Dialogues and communications – and what results they produce – are completely different matters,” said Shi, a former adviser to the State Council, China’s cabinet.
“The Biden administration will not want any perception that it is soft on China during the campaign season,” Wilder said, adding that the window would close by the end of the year.
Lu Xiang, an expert on US-China relations at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences (CASS), was even more cautious and expected the window – now already entering its “final stage” – would last only until the end of August.
“Is there a possibility of improvement in the next two or three months? I think there’s still a glimmer of hope,” Lu said.
“Of course, we don’t know if the US really feels the urgency. It is now a test.
“The next three months could be the most important three months for China-US relations.”
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Right up until the latest round of meetings between senior officials, tensions continued to mount on multiple fronts, including over Taiwan, the tech war, the South China Sea and human rights.
Around the same time, the hi-tech war between the world’s two largest economies escalated as China has banned the sale of Idaho-based Micron Technology’s products, claiming that the American memory chip maker posed a “national security risk”. Washington said the claim had “no basis in fact”.
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And at the G7 summit in Japan, the US and its allies agreed to launch a new initiative to counter China’s “economic coercion”. They also said there was no legal basis for Beijing’s “expansive” maritime claims in the South China Sea and voiced concerns about the human rights situation in China.
Beijing appears to be keeping a cool head, differentiating between more engagement and improving ties.
When asked whether the recent engagement signalled a “turning point” for the bilateral tensions, Chinese foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said on May 26 that “what’s important is that the US cannot demand communication and cooperation from China while hurting and curbing China’s interests in all possible means”.
She said the two countries “maintain necessary communication”.
Bonnie Glaser, director of the Asia programme at the German Marshall Fund in the US, doubted that either side now expected a reset in their relationship.
“US and Chinese assessments of the other nation’s intentions are unlikely to change; mutual distrust runs very deep,” she said.
She also expected that the best to hope for was dialogue between the two countries to be restored to manage bilateral differences and some forms of cooperation where interests overlapped.
Wilder also viewed “the profound lack of trust” as “the biggest impediment” to a healthy and sustainable US-China relationship, adding that mutual misperception could only be eased through persistent high-level engagement.
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That mistrust is reflected in rhetoric at the top.
In March, Chinese President Xi Jinping directly accused the US of urging other Western nations to help suppress China’s development. And since last year the Biden administration has labelled China as “the only competitor with the intent and the means to reshape the rules-based international order”.
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has said the US has no intention of using trade constraints to stifle China’s rise. Still, Beijing accused Washington in early May of applying export controls to contain and bring down not only China but also a large number of developing countries.
The Biden administration has repeatedly said it is not seeking another cold war or conflict with China. Washington recently aligned with its allies to assert that it was looking to de-risk but not decouple with China, a message that does not sit well with Beijing.
While in Europe last month, Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang was still warning that “a certain country” – in an apparent reference to the US – was waging a “new cold war”.
There is also an easing in economic ties, with US-China trade appearing to weaken slightly last year after rising steadily for decades, according to a report released by the US-China Business Council on May 25.
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Trump-era tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars’ worth of Chinese goods imposed during the trade war have remained in place, while Biden has maintained an exclusion process for select industries.
US-China relations remain at rock bottom and are still in a very dangerous state, according to Lu from CASS.
“Most countries are very concerned about further intensification of conflicts between China and the US and, of course, China and the US have the same concerns,” he said, noting that a stable and constructive US-China relationship was in line with China’s interests and had always been pursued by Beijing.
Despite the recent US rhetoric that it expected a “thaw”, China prized consistency of deeds and words from the American side more, he said, adding that the US was on the road to a negative-sum game that hurt itself as well.
Lu said it was hard for the two countries to resolve all their differences at once and they should not expect the room to improve bilateral ties to become very large immediately, but both sides could take first steps in some practical areas.
Trade could be a starting point, Lu said.
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Ryan Hass, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Brookings think tank, expected Beijing and Washington to make more attempts to strengthen diplomatic channels of communication in the coming months.
“These efforts will not solve any of the underlying challenges in the relationship but they will make the challenges more manageable for both sides,” said Hass, a former China director at the White House’s National Security Council.
The US should pause efforts with Beijing to negotiate crisis management mechanisms and principles for the conduct of the relationship because there was no scope for progress in the existing situation, he added.
