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Antony Blinken’s visit to China could be a success even without breakthrough agreements: analysts

  • Trip by top US envoy is first step ‘to determine if there is sufficient mutual intent to try to moderate the trajectory’ of the bilateral relationship
  • Visit also expected to boost Beijing’s charm offensive as well as set stage for other top American officials seeking to visit China

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In visiting Beijing, Antony Blinken would be the first US secretary of state to do so since 2018. Photo: Getty Images via AFP
Bochen Hanin Washington

The measure of success for US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s highly anticipated visit to China is not whether it produces breakthrough agreements but whether it re-establishes some predictability to the relationship, according to analysts.

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After months of bilateral acrimony following incidents like a suspected Chinese surveillance balloon detected over American territory – a high-profile setback for relations that derailed Blinken’s planned February visit to Beijing – analysts argue that the coming trip by Washington’s top envoy is more important for testing the future of the relationship than for any substantive discussions that will take place.

“The trip is the first step in an exploratory process to determine if there is sufficient mutual intent to try to moderate the trajectory of the relationship,” said Ryan Haas, senior fellow at the Brookings Institution, a Washington-based think tank.

Blinken’s visit affords him an opportunity to reaffirm core American principles amid China’s ascent and “maybe even to do a little better job” at making diplomatic inroads than the administration as a whole has done, said Michael O’Hanlon, also of Brookings.

“The trip, in either direct or maybe implicit ways, can help signal that kind of a return to normalcy where our goals are about sort of guiding China back towards a path of peaceful rise and not viewing it as our next enemy,” O’Hanlon added.

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