China, US should ‘try every tool’ to ease lingering concerns over lack of trust, experts say

Security impasse between Beijing and Washington is ‘darkest cloud’ hanging over regional stability, diplomats and policy experts say
Recent dialogue is encouraging, but the two countries must resume military communications

US-China relations

Laura Zhou

Published: 10:00am, 4 Jul 2023

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China and the US must resume their military dialogue as soon as possible to rebuild trust, the lack of which has become a major concern to countries in the region, foreign diplomats and experts said.

Daniel Russel, the top US diplomat for Asia under former US president Barack Obama, said the security impasse between China and the US had become the “darkest cloud” affecting regional stability and recovery.

“What I heard [in Beijing] about ‘a certain country’ is of unusual similarities to what I hear in Washington,” Russel, now vice-president for international security and diplomacy at the Asia Society Policy Institute (ASPI), told academics and diplomats in Beijing at a panel discussion of the World Peace Forum.

Amid intensifying strategic rivalry, Beijing and Washington have accused each other of violating international laws, seeking hegemony and jeopardising the interests of developing countries, as well as peace and stability in the region.

“This demonstrates that the US and China have become mutually suspicious, increasingly hostile states,” he said.

“Each government thinks it is protecting the status quo and its legitimate rights. But since the other government’s behaviour is what is disrupted, each side perceives its own actions as legitimate and defensive.”

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Russel said that without dialogue, trust and transparency, relations between Washington and Beijing were trapped in a downward spiral and questions would be raised over the other’s strategic intentions, prompting deep concern from neighbouring countries.

“A crisis could very well lead to a conflict despite neither side wanting it,” he warned.

The assessment came after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken made a high-stakes trip to Beijing two weeks ago, easing some of the bilateral rancour that had stalled high-level diplomatic dialogue for almost five months since the US shot down what it said at the time was a Chinese spy balloon.

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Last week, the Pentagon said the Chinese balloon, which crossed the continent from Alaska to the east coast in February, did not collect any intelligence information.

In another move that may further ease tensions between the world’s two biggest economies, Beijing announced on Monday that US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen would travel to China on Thursday.

While the latest high-level interactions between Beijing and Washington are widely considered positive to other countries in the region that fear being caught in the political crossfire between the two powers, deep concerns remain over the lack of high-level dialogue between the two militaries, diplomats and observers say.

Peter Tan, Singapore’s ambassador to China, said Blinken’s visit to Beijing was “an encouraging development”, causing “some cautious optimism” in the region.

However, the two sides should “maintain open and effective channels of communication … regardless of whether these channels and platforms are conducted in the public domain, or behind closed doors”, he added.

“Dialogue is the basis for building mutual understanding and bridging differences,” Tan said.

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Even if their differences could not be resolved overnight, major powers “have a heavy responsibility to maintain stable relations and reach compromises with one another”, he added.

In a worrying sign reflecting security concerns between the great powers, “many countries have increasingly prioritised national security considerations in their engagement with the world”, Tan said.

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Figures from Stockholm International Peace Research Institute showed that the countries in Asia and Oceania spent a combined US$575 billion on their armed forces last year, a 2.7 per cent increase over 2021 and 45 per cent more than a decade ago.

Russel said Washington and Beijing should “try every tool” to reduce their trust deficit, and one “very important” tool would be finding ways for military officers to get to know each other to reduce misunderstanding.

Dialogue between the Chinese and US militaries has been suspended since former US House speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan last summer. During his visit in Beijing, Blinken reportedly tried but failed to persuade the Chinese side to reopen high-level military communications.

“These are the warriors and they prepare for the worst. But the worst would be, if there is a mistake, a misunderstanding or miscalculation that leads ultimately to a crisis,” Russel said.