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US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s China visit was well received in Beijing, but “significant disagreements” remain between the two economic giants. Photo: Reuters

How long will US-China ‘window of opportunity’ last in afterglow of Janet Yellen’s visit?

  • US treasury secretary’s trip avoided ‘worse than the worst’ scenario, raising hopes for further thaw ahead of climate envoy John Kerry’s visit
  • Yellen’s ‘candid, pragmatic’ approach a breath of fresh air, but it’s up to Washington to put relations back on track, observers say
China and the US should seize “a window of opportunity” to mend their strained ties following US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen’s relatively smooth China trip, observers said, and with climate envoy John Kerry set to visit soon, hopes have grown for continued dialogue before a summit later this year.
Although there were no breakthroughs from her four-day trip to Beijing, Yellen appeared to have enjoyed a warmer reception and media coverage in China compared to US Secretary of State Antony Blinken during his ice-breaking trip to the capital last month.

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Chinese officials and state-controlled media applauded Yellen for her pragmatism and non-confrontational approach and generally responded positively to her appeal for “healthy economic competition” with China.

According to observers, Beijing’s message was clear: it still desires better relations with Washington and is ready to talk, but it is up to the administration of US President Joe Biden to take the initiative to put bilateral ties back on track.

In a statement on Monday, China’s Ministry of Finance spoke highly of Yellen’s visit and her “candid, pragmatic, in-depth and constructive” meetings with several Chinese officials. It called on the Biden administration to adopt a “rational and pragmatic” attitude toward China and “take concrete actions to respond to China’s major concerns about US economic sanctions and suppression”.

Lu Xiang, an expert on US affairs at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said that with the resumption of high-level exchanges, both countries had “a window of opportunity” to stabilise ties.

“Although there are no substantive results, Yellen’s trip was a success as the atmosphere has visibly improved, avoiding a ‘worse than the worst’ scenario,” he said. “Although bilateral relations are still far from bottoming out, both sides have at least expressed their desire to move forward and improve ties.”

In an interview for American Public Media’s Marketplace programme on Sunday, shortly before leaving Beijing, Yellen said her trip had achieved the goal of putting a floor under bilateral ties in spite of “significant disagreements”.

This is one of the most important bilateral relationships and economic and financial relationships that we have
Janet Yellen

“There are challenges, but I believe there is a desire on both sides to stabilise the relationship and to constructively address problems that each of us see in our relationship, to do so frankly, with candour, with respect and to build a productive relationship going forward,” she said.

“This is one of the most important bilateral relationships and economic and financial relationships that we have.”

During her visit, Yellen, the former head of the US Federal Reserve, met Premier Li Qiang, China’s No. 2 leader, on Friday, and had a five-hour session Saturday with Vice-Premier He Lifeng, the Chinese lead on the US-China trade and economic front.

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She also met several incumbent and retired Chinese officials, including Finance Minister Liu Kun, Yi Gang, the central bank governor, and Pan Gongsheng, widely seen as Yi’s successor, China’s former economic chief Liu He and Yi’s predecessor Zhou Xiaochuan.

Earlier on Sunday, Yellen described the meetings as “direct, substantive and productive”, saying they had brought US-China ties closer to a “surer footing”.

Yellen said she made clear that Washington was not looking to decouple from the Chinese economy, as Beijing feared, because doing so would be “disastrous for both countries and destabilising for the world”.

She also tried to ease Beijing’s growing anxiety about US export controls on advanced technologies and other actions targeting China, saying they were motivated by “straightforward national security considerations” and to diversify supply chains, not to “gain economic advantage”.

“I want to allay their fears that we would do something that would have broad-based impacts on the Chinese economy,” Yellen said.

Still, Beijing apparently remained sceptical, with Chinese officials voicing grievances about US sanctions and other restrictive measures and Vice-Premier He warning the US that “generalising national security” was not conducive to economic exchanges, according to state news agency Xinhua.

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Compared to the frosty welcome Blinken received last month during his first visit to Beijing as the top US diplomat, Beijing obviously saw Yellen as a more friendly figure in the Biden administration, according to Lu.

“From Beijing’s perspective, Yellen is indeed different from Blinken and others in charge of security and foreign policy issues, especially when it comes to how they perceive China,” he said.

“While it is impossible for her to ditch the Biden administration’s hostile strategy towards China, Yellen’s overall attitude is more moderate and pragmatic and she is not as dogmatic as Blinken. That is why the atmosphere is much better.”

Yun Sun, director of the China programme at the Stimson Centre in Washington, said Yellen’s visit was another positive factor contributing to efforts to repair ties.

“There are many positive factors, which are definitely good for stabilising the relationship. But if negative factors still prevail, it’d be unlikely to reset or redefine bilateral ties,” she said.

She added that both Yellen and Blinken’s China trips could help set the stage for a long-anticipated meeting between Chinese President Xi Jinping and Biden at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) summit in San Francisco in November.

“Things will have to get better and tensions would definitely ease in the lead-up to the Apec summit, when the two leaders are expected to meet in November,” she said.

No one knows what will happen after the Apec summit, as the US enters the election cycle for next year’s presidential election soon
Yun Sun

But how long the thaw will last remains unclear, considering the simmering hostilities and antagonism over issues ranging from Taiwan, Xinjiang, and the South China Sea to US export bans and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

“No one knows what will happen after the Apec summit, as the US enters the election cycle for next year’s presidential election soon,” Sun said.

Yellen also met representatives of US businesses operating in China, and raised China’s “non-market” practices and “coercive actions” against American firms, warning Chinese companies against providing material support for Russia’s war in Ukraine.

She also invited a group of Chinese female economists and entrepreneurs to lunch on Saturday in a bid to “interact with a number of people kind of outside the normal policy structure”, according to the US Treasury Department.

Yellen, 76, the first woman to head the US Federal Reserve, tried to highlight women’s contributions to economies and the challenges they faced, saying “I see it all the time when I’m almost the only woman in the room” or at decision-making tables.

But her key message appeared to be aimed at the Chinese people. “Let me be clear: while the US has differences with the Chinese government, these are not disagreements with the Chinese people.”

However, her efforts to spotlight gender diversity drew attacks on social media from China’s ultranationalists, who called the women at Yellen’s lunch “radical feminists”, traitors and American spies.

Yellen was also criticised in the US for bowing multiple times when meeting He and other Chinese officials, with some media outlets and observers saying it was a sign of the weakness of the Biden administration.

Lu said the criticisms targeting Yellen and the group of the Chinese women were both unfair and unsubstantiated. But he said Yellen appeared tense throughout her trip, sticking to her prepared scripts on most occasions, including at the all-women lunch.

Pang Zhongying, a professor of international affairs at Sichuan University, said the nationalist backlash against Yellen’s China visit underlined the deepening divide between the two powers and the hardening public perceptions in both countries.

He noted that unlike Blinken, Yellen did not meet Xi, who was out of town at the time – an indication, some said that bilateral ties were still at a low.

“Yellen is well-respected in the US and she knows how to speak softly, but her politeness should not be mistaken as a sign of weakness,” he said.

Pang described the visits by Blinken and Yellen and a planned visit by US climate envoy John Kerry this weekend as conciliatory gestures from the US.

“It’s true that there is a window of opportunity, but it may be short-lived. Now that the US has extended an olive branch, expressing its desire to engage while preventing the US-China rivalry from getting out of control. All eyes will be on China and it remains to be seen if China is willing and able to seize the opportunity,” he said.

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But overall, the mood remained pessimistic, Pang observed, with Beijing averse to US-led globalisation amid China’s lingering economic and social gloom.

Lu also cautioned against hopes that bilateral ties would improve greatly as expectations rise for a Xi-Biden meeting at the Apec summit.

“Now there needs to be a breakthrough in the next couple of months [before the November summit],” he said. “A breakthrough between China and the US on economic and trade issues, however small it may be, would be great news for both countries and the global economy. But if no progress can be made, Beijing may see these exchanges as a waste of time and a US attempt to legitimise its policy of containment towards China.”

Lu also noted that Yellen’s arrival coincided with Xi’s inspection tour of the Eastern Theatre Command of the People’s Liberation Army in Jiangsu, which oversees the Taiwan Strait, and the Suzhou Industrial Park. Xi called for increased war and combat preparedness and greater efforts to boost self-sufficiency and home-grown technologies to counter the US-led tech war against China.

“Both inspections were about self-reliance and independent innovation, suggesting that while China wants to see a friendly environment for the US and China, it nonetheless prepares for possible perilous storms in the ‘worst-case and extreme scenarios’,” he said.

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