Xi’s surprise meeting with Duterte the latest bid to improve ties with Manila
- Chinese president urged former Philippine leader to ‘play an important role’ in promoting relations between the two nations
- Beijing is concerned by perceived anti-China push and is sending a message that it ‘preferred the old policy’, analyst says
During their talks in Beijing on Monday, Xi urged former Philippine president Duterte to “play an important role in the friendly cooperation between the two countries”.
“China has always attached importance to China-Philippines relations and is willing to work with the Philippines to promote the steady and long-term development of China-Philippines ties,” Xi said.
Ma Bo, a visiting fellow at the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute in Singapore, said the meeting could be viewed as an extension of Beijing’s “head-of-state diplomacy”, noting that Duterte “almost single-handedly altered” Manila’s China policy from one that was leaning towards the US.
“The engagement with Duterte signifies China’s – especially President Xi’s – commitment to honour those leaders who have contributed to strengthening bilateral relations with China,” said Ma, who is also an associate professor at Nanjing University’s School of International Studies.
“It is apparent that China hopes Duterte will advocate for amicable relations with China, but they would also like him and his political alliance to criticise the US-Philippines ‘charm offensive’ against China in the South China Sea, and potentially in the Taiwan Strait.”
And when Philippine Foreign Affairs Secretary Enrique Manalo and then Acting Defence Secretary Carlito Galvez Jnr met their counterparts in Washington the same month, the US “redoubled” its commitment to modernising a mutual defence treaty signed in 1951, and the two sides agreed on plans for joint patrols in the South China Sea.
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Renato Cruz De Castro, a professor of international studies at De La Salle University, said China was alarmed by Marcos Jnr’s moves to give the US a bigger strategic footprint in the Philippines.
“China is very much concerned by what they perceive as anti-China policies,” he said. “Xi is sending a message to [Duterte’s] followers that China preferred the old policy. He wants to return to the situation when the Philippines was appeasing China.”
Diplomatic observer Charmaine Willoughby said Manila was “caught by surprise” by Duterte’s visit to China this week and that it had “undercut Philippine institutions”. Philippine media reported that the foreign ministry was not aware of the former leader’s trip.
Beijing sees Duterte as someone who could challenge the alliance with Washington, according to Willoughby, a member of the Board of Trustees of the Foundation for the National Interest, a Manila-based think tank.
As president from 2016 to 2022, Duterte sought closer diplomatic and economic ties with China and distanced the Philippines from the US, suspending joint navy patrols and limiting military engagement.
According to Xinhua, Duterte told Xi on Monday that he was grateful for China’s support for the Philippines’ economic and social development and that he was “willing to continue to play a role” in promoting friendly ties.
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Chong Ja Ian, a political science professor at the National University of Singapore, said Xi was likely looking for ways to address Manila’s pivot towards Washington.
“Perhaps Xi hopes that Duterte can use his popularity and supporters to help advance [China’s] case in the Philippines,” he said.
Cruz De Castro, from De La Salle University, said Xi appeared to be “trying to empower the [Duterte] faction within the current administration to put a check on what they perceive to be policies that gravitate towards the US”.
That faction includes Vice-President Sara Duterte and Imee Marcos, the president’s sister who has spoken out against her brother’s foreign policy.
Willoughby said driving a wedge between the Philippines and the US would be a win for Beijing as it would be able to “get away with the South China Sea and even potentially Taiwan”.
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But Cruz De Castro said it was unlikely Duterte would have much sway on the current administration’s China policy.
He also noted that public opinion polls in the Philippines had found a high level of distrust towards China, with more confidence in the US.
“One thing is clear, it will lead to greater division between the Duterte faction and those who are siding with the current administration,” he said. “It might lead to an open confrontation.”
Ma from the ISEAS-Yusof Ishak Institute said Beijing saw its relations with Manila as more volatile than with other Southeast Asian nations.
“Beijing is demonstrating strategic patience towards the Marcos Jnr administration,” Ma said.
“However, if these diplomatic efforts fail, Beijing might have no choice but to launch a new wave of operations in the South China Sea, targeting Manila’s military and security cooperation with the Quad as a last resort.”
