Chinese foreign minister exit: no change to Wolf Warrior diplomacy as Wang Yi replaces Qin Gang, but there is hope of policy stability
- Qin Gang’s abrupt ousting means foreign diplomats will once again be dealing with someone who is seen in Europe as ‘a known quantity, but not liked very much’
- But in many parts of the world, there is a sense that personnel changes will not have a significant impact on the direction of Beijing’s policies
They said Wang Yi, Qin’s predecessor who has been parachuted back into the job, will be a familiar face that some governments may find reassuring, but he is seen as just as – if not more – confrontational.
“Wang is a known quantity, but he is not exactly liked very much [in Europe] … he is always very vocal on China’s interests,”, said Nis Grunberg, a specialist in China’s elite politics at the Mercator Institute for China Studies in Berlin.
“Qin seemed like a more polished diplomat – better at playing to national audiences, able to speak to national media. Wang Yi didn’t seem to care much [about those things].”
02:49
Big political questions linger after China abruptly replaces its foreign minister
A European business leader who frequently meets visiting Chinese officials described Wang as “aggressive and sharp”, a departure from the “charming and soft-spoken” style exemplified by veteran diplomats such as Fu Ying, the former ambassador to Britain and foreign vice-minister.
Some diplomats in the United States saw the return of Wang, who is also China’s foreign policy chief, as a sign of continuity.
“He was in the [foreign minister’s] role for 10 years and is a career China foreign policymaker. So I’d expect China’s foreign policy to be consistent, regardless of the recent changes.”
The sentiment was shared in Southeast Asia.
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Bilahari Kausikan, a former permanent secretary at Singapore’s foreign ministry, did not think that a change of personnel would make any difference.
“As a big, contiguous country, China will always enjoy influence in our region and for exactly the same reasons, China will always arouse anxieties in our region,” he said.
“This fundamental reality will not change and we will deal with it as we always have – by engaging China while simultaneously engaging other powers such as the US, Japan, Australia and India to balance China.”
The sudden removal of Qin, who has been missing from public view for a month, and the return of Wang surprised many.
But as diplomatic circles around the world try to digest the news, they believe the wolf warrior approach – named after a series of nationalistic action movies – will remain.
An EU official said Wang’s reappointment was not a big surprise since he has had a “constant presence in international meetings and gatherings those last weeks”.
“We do not think that the appointment has a deep political meaning except that it maintains a certain continuity in dialogue with our interlocutors, which in diplomacy is sometimes useful,” said the official, who did not want to be named.
A spokeswoman for Josep Borrell, the EU’s top diplomat who has seen two trips to China cancelled in recent months – first because he contracted Covid-19 and then because of Qin’s absence – said that he “looks forward to continuing very good cooperation with Foreign Minister Wang Yi, as with past interactions”.
“He is a well-known counterpart of Borrell. They last met in Jakarta, in the margins of the Asean regional forum, on 14 July,” the spokeswoman said.
Among European diplomats and officials, however, the general view is that the identity of the foreign minister is relatively unimportant, given that they will all need to sing from President Xi Jinping’s hymnsheet.
“There is a tendency in Europe to think that personalities matter greatly in ministerial positions in China, particularly an outward-facing role like foreign minister,” said a European diplomat who did multiple tours in Beijing.
Flamboyance may travel well internationally, but it does not go down well domestically
“Beijing is an opaque place, but it’s not necessarily concealing anything other than more opacity,” the diplomat said. “Wang has always been a classical sort of minister, nothing flamboyant about him.
“Flamboyance may travel well internationally, but it does not go down well domestically.”
Yu Jie, who studies China’s foreign policy decision-making processes at Chatham House, predicted the “continuous irritation” in EU-China relations would continue.
She said: “Given Wang’s decade-long career heading the [foreign ministry], his familiarity with Beijing’s diplomatic service and policy priorities, he should be considered as a safe pair of hands for Xi to fill this temporary gap.”
Chong Ja Ian, a political-science professor at the National University of Singapore, said that in Southeast Asia, “the larger question is over policy predictability, but that is not necessarily tied to a person.”
China removes Qin Gang as foreign minister after month-long absence
In the United States, former diplomats saw Wang’s return as a reassuring tactical move. The US State Department has said it is “up to China to decide who their foreign minister is” and pledged to continue to engage with Wang and other officials.
Qin was ousted after 207 days, making him China’s shortest-serving foreign minster, prompting speculation about a possible power struggle. But Adelman and other observers said it made more sense to focus on who would replace him.
Kurt Tong, a former US consul general in Hong Kong, called the situation “a temporary hiccup in Chinese foreign affairs”.
“They have a deep bench,” said Tong, who is now managing partner at the Washington-based consultancy Asia Group. “No doubt someone will be promoted to take Qin’s place and Wang will go back to his previous role.”
01:58
Chinese foreign minister Qin Gang ousted after month-long absence
Daniel Russel, formerly the top US diplomat for Asia, said the sudden transition did not reflect well on Xi’s judgment.
Qin’s removal was as abrupt as his previous elevation over many experienced diplomats, which will be seen as an embarrassing lapse at the top, Russel said.
He added that while Wang is a “safe pair of hands”, he has to juggle three roles – foreign minister, party foreign policy chief and membership of the Politburo – over an “intense period of activist Chinese diplomacy”.
Russel said: “At a minimum, his reappointment buys time for the leadership to consider which of the contenders can be trusted to take over the more junior foreign minister post.”
