What the Niger coup means for China’s presence in the Sahel region

The coup is part of a wave of instability sweeping the Sahel where Beijing has extensive economic interests
China has invested in the country’s uranium and oil industries, and analysts say political turmoil may have an impact

China-Africa relations

Jevans Nyabiage

Published: 9:00am, 31 Jul 2023

Why you can trust SCMP

Last week’s military coup in Niger is adding to the growing pains for China’s investments in the Sahel region.

On Wednesday, a group of soldiers from the presidential guard detained Nigerien President Mohamed Bazoum, citing a worsening security and economic situation.

In the past three years there have also been coups in Burkina Faso, Guinea, Mali, Chad and Sudan, all countries where China has extensive economic interests especially in the mining and petroleum industries and is looking to extend its multibillion-dollar trade and investment scheme, the Belt and Road Initiative.

Bazoum was elected in March 2021 in the country’s first peaceful, democratic transition since independence from France in 1960.

China’s foreign ministry said Beijing was closely monitoring the situation in Niger and called on relevant parties to act in the interest of the country and its people and solve differences peacefully through dialogue.

Rahmane Idrissa, a senior researcher at the African Studies Centre at Leiden University in Netherlands, said the military was taking advantage of what looked like an international climate more tolerant of coups.

Idrissa said the coup was a disaster for the Franco-Nigerien relationship and more broadly, for Niger’s relations with the West.

He said the Wagner Group – a Russian mercenary company with extensive interests in Africa – “isn’t a factor but the Kremlin is certainly happy about it, not because it helps the Nigeriens, but because it might help their progress into West Africa, which has been favoured by the juntas of Mali and Burkina Faso”.

Vital US support under threat as EU cuts off aid to Niger amid coup

He said China was present in Niger as an economic partner in the exploitation of oil in the eastern part of the country. “The deal will not be affected by the coup,” he said.

Bazoum is a close ally of France, and other Western nations but Beijing has been making inroads into Niger as it has with other countries in the region.

China’s state-owned China National Petroleum Corporation and China National Nuclear Corporation invested US$4.6 billion and US$480 million in the country’s petroleum and uranium industries respectively, according to China’s Ministry of Commerce.

The country’s uranium industry supplies around 5 per cent of the world’s highest-grade uranium ore.

On June 27, Bazoum met a delegation from China National Uranium Corporation (CNUC) to discuss the conditions for the takeover of the Société des mines d’Azelik (Somina), where CNUC and the Nigerien state are the majority shareholders.

CNUC has recently been carrying out studies on restarting production in Niger’s northern region. The project, abandoned nine years ago due to global market conditions, is now being reconsidered due to favourable uranium prices.

President Mohamed Bazoum was detained by the coup plotters. Photo: AFP

Besides uranium, which Niger mostly exports to France, Canada and South Korea, the country also exports gold and oily seeds, according to data from the Observatory of Economic Complexity.

Early this month, China’s ambassador to Niger Jiang Feng met Bazoum and said China would build an industrial park in the capital Niamey with a significant impact on sectors such as agro-food, manufacturing, mining and real estate.

During the meeting, Jiang also briefed the president of his visit to Agadem, where the Niger-Benin export pipeline developed by the China National Petroleum Corporation starts.

The pipeline spans nearly 2,000km (1,200 miles) and is expected to bolster Niger’s crude oil production and facilitate international trade through a terminal on Benin’s coast.

Gunmen kidnap 4 Chinese workers from Nigeria mine

Mohammed Soliman, director at the Middle East Institute in Washington, said the coup in Niger had heightened destabilisation in the Sahel region.

“Niger’s possession of significant uranium mines and other valuable resources, such as gold, raises concerns about the potentially far-reaching implications for the global economy,” Soliman said.

Soliman said that should the situation in the Sahel region escalate further, it could have considerable consequences for China’s economic interests and investments in Niger and neighbouring countries.

“The instability may disrupt infrastructure projects, extractive industries, and other ventures China has invested in, posing risks to its economic stake in the area,” Soliman said.

What could Niger coup and new military leader mean for West Africa stability?

Moreover, Soliman said prolonged instability and conflicts in the Sahel could impact China’s broader strategic objectives and influence in Africa, prompting a re-evaluation of its engagement and presence on the continent.

John Calabrese, a professor at American University in Washington, said it would be worth watching whether the new leadership of Niger followed through with the discussions Beijing held with Bazoum’s administration.

Gyude Moore, a senior policy fellow at the Washington-based Centre for Global Development, and a former public works minister in Liberia, said Niger was one of the last bastions of French support in francophone Africa.

Moore said China has no preference regarding regime type, so if Western governments withdrew, China’s influence would grow, by default.

Moore said China’s contribution to Sahel security stabilisation, which includes troops joining a UN peacekeeping mission in Mali, had been tied to China’s own growing economic interests in the region. “Those interests mean that China will be focused on stability, regardless of regime type,” Moore said.