China keen to ensure Saudi Arabia’s Ukraine peace talks do not become ‘anti-Russian’ event

Beijing, which has published its own peace plan, remains close to Moscow and does not want to see it isolated internationally
Russia has not been invited to the event in Jeddah, where Ukraine is expected to seek broader international support

Ukraine war

Kawala Xie

Published: 8:00pm, 4 Aug 2023

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China is likely to work to ensure that a Saudi conference to discuss peace plans for Ukraine does not become an “anti-Russian” event, analysts said.

More than 30 countries have reportedly been invited to the two-day conference in Jeddah this weekend, where Ukraine is likely to seek more international support. Russia, which recently pulled out of a deal to protect Ukrainian grain exports, has not been invited.

However, China and a number of developing nations – including its Brics partners India, Brazil and South Africa – that are expected to be most affected by Russia’s actions are among those invited.

Brazil, India, and South Africa have maintained a neutral stance during the war but remain close to Russia.

Beijing confirmed on Friday that it will send Li Hui, its special envoy for Eurasian affairs.

Wang Yiwei, an international relations professor at Renmin University, said the attendance of Li, who went on a peace mission to Europe in May, indicated China’s dedication to finding a peaceful settlement.

Beijing could also prevent the event from being turned into “an anti-Russian and Western-led multilateral occasion to isolate Russia”, he said.

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Wang said that if the event was just to endorse Ukraine and isolate Russia then “I don’t think it will work”.

However, he added that “China is often able to serve as a bridge to convey both sides’ position”, and could seek common ground with other countries and work with Russia to agree to an early ceasefire.

The Russian foreign ministry lashed out at the conference on Wednesday, calling it an attempt to form an “anti-Russian coalition”.

Andriy Yermak, the head of the Ukrainian presidential office, said the event would discuss Kyiv’s 10-point peace formula, which requires a full Russian withdrawal and the restoration of its occupied territories, including Crimea.

Gedaliah Afterman, head of the Asia policy programme at the Abba Eban Institute for Diplomacy and Foreign Relations from Israel’s Reichman University, said China’s participation would cultivate its reputation as a global mediator.

“China has strategically positioned itself as a potential intermediary between Russia and Ukraine … Success in this endeavour could advance China’s relationships with key European countries, such as France and Germany, and further strengthen its already significant position in the Middle East and among the nations of the Global South,” he said.

“This is particularly crucial as tensions with the United States and other Western countries have escalated.”

Chinese diplomat Li Hui will attend the conference on behalf of Beijing. Photo: AP

China put forward its own 12-point peace proposal to resolve the Ukraine crisis in February, calling for a ceasefire.

But it has yet to convince European countries which see it as siding with Russia, and Li’s European tour in May appears to have made little progress.

Victor Gao, vice-president of Beijing-based think tank the Centre for China and Globalisation, said China would hope to use the summit to advance its own peace plan but was open to other peace proposals.

Gao, who is also an adviser to the Saudi oil company Aramco, said China’s participation in the event was a recognition of Saudi Arabia’s own peace efforts.

The Wall Street Journal, citing Western diplomats, reported that the choice of Saudi Arabia to host the event was an effort to sway China.

US national security adviser Jake Sullivan is believed to have discussed the peace conference during a visit to Riyadh last week designed to repair Washington’s relations with the kingdom, and he is also expected to attend the peace conference.

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Saudi Arabia has maintained friendly relations with both Moscow and Beijing even as its relationship with the US worsened, and Washington has complained that its decision to reduce its oil output has boosted Russia, another major oil exporter, by pushing up prices.

“[Saudi Arabia’s] close, mainly oil and energy-based relationship with Russia, has deepened in the wake of the war in Ukraine. At the same time, Saudi Arabia remains a US ally able to understand US interests and positions, while also growing its strategic partnership with China,” said Yossi Mann, head of the Middle East programme at Reichman University.

“Riyadh’s unique positioning has made it an influential player among the superpowers Russia, the United States, and China, despite escalating tensions.”

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Gao said Riyadh’s foreign policy meant it was unlikely to turn the conference into an anti-Russian occasion.

“Saudi Arabia will not do one thing that will be considered by Russia as anti-Russia, because it is not in its fundamental interests. I don’t think Saudi Arabia will become a puppet of the United States to help it achieve its strategic goals,” he said.

On Friday, the Russian state-owned news agency RIA Novosti, citing foreign ministry sources, reported that Riyadh had told Moscow it would provide it with the results of the conference.