After his China trip was announced, Netanyahu received a delayed White House invitation to visit the US by the end of the year.

Analysts said Netanyahu could still seek China’s help to fast-track Israel’s normalisation of ties with Saudi Arabia, though it could be a difficult task for Beijing, which recently brokered a landmark peace deal between the kingdom and Iran.

Pan Guang, dean of the Centre of Jewish Studies Shanghai (CJSS), said seeking China’s help would be one of Netanyahu’s key missions when he came to China. He said China had leverage compared with the United States when it came to the mediation process, but the Israel-Palestine conflict would remain a challenge.

“Compared with the United States, Saudi Arabia’s relations with China are now on the rise, while its relations with the United States are on the decline,” he said.

“The Democrat administration talks about human rights, which quite troubles the Saudis. China does not interfere with domestic affairs like human rights, so it will be easier to get things done.”

China’s Xi meets Mahmoud Abbas, offers 3-point plan to resolve Palestinian issue

Riyadh has increasingly partnered with Beijing in various fields as it looks to diversify its oil-dominated economy, while its relations with Washington have become strained in recent years, particularly over the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi.

But the US and Saudi Arabia have begun to show signs of a thaw in recent months, with US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan visiting Riyadh on separate trips to refresh Washington’s commitment to the region.

The US has pushed for Israel’s integration into the region by attempting to broker the normalisation of ties with Riyadh. But while more Arab countries, including the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, have established formal ties with Israel, no clear progress has been seen after rounds of separate talks with Saudi Arabia.

In exchange for normalising ties with Israel, Riyadh reportedly demanded more security assurances, including advanced weapons sales, a US pledge to defend the kingdom if attacked and support for a civil nuclear programme that would allow domestic uranium enrichment – conditions Washington found too costly to accept.

Meanwhile, the US pressed Israel to de-escalate tensions with the Palestinians and halt the judicial overhaul – which has prompted mass demonstrations over concerns it will undermine the country’s democracy – in exchange for the normalisation of ties.

03:23

Israel embroiled in protests as parliament passes law curbing judicial power

Israel embroiled in protests as parliament passes law curbing judicial power

Pan said China would face similar demands from both sides if it tried to mediate.

“Saudi Arabia at least will ask for a halt to the building of settlements in the occupied [Palestinian] territories if establishing diplomatic relations with Israel,” he said, adding that the demand would probably not be accepted by Israel.

Tuvia Gering, a researcher with the Diane and Guilford Glazer Israel-China Policy Centre at the Institute for National Security Studies (INSS) in Tel Aviv, said negotiations over Saudi-Israeli ties had so far only been arranged by the White House, and Riyadh appeared to be more interested in what it could possibly get from the US, such as F-35 fighter jets.

“China would love nothing more than cutting the ribbon to Israeli-Saudi normalisation because these are two close US partners. And China [taking] the credit, that would send a huge signal to everyone,” he said.

“So sure, if they can land it. But that’s why I don’t think they’ll be able to … Israel is not Saudi Arabia. This is no imitation game. Israel does not play the China card with the US.”

Netanyahu assured the US that it remained Israel’s “irreplaceable” ally after he announced his China trip, despite reportedly saying in a classified briefing that China’s involvement in the region could be useful to “compel” the US to increase its engagement in the region.

Gering said Netanyahu’s visit would be closely watched in the context of the US-China rivalry, but Israel had no intention of seeking China as an alternative to the US.

“When you have Netanyahu or [de facto Saudi ruler] Mohammed bin Salman go to China, ostensibly it’s with the eye of having the US recommit. Because it’s one way of telling the US that, look, if you’re leaving us behind and you’re going to do your thing there and we need to maintain the balance, and for a successful offshore balancing, you want to have multiple players,” he said.

However, there is “zero resemblance” between Israel and Saudi Arabia when it comes to “hedging bets or diversifying or having alternatives”, he said.

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Observers also said they did not expect any breakthroughs in the Israeli-Palestinian peace process during Netanyahu’s visit.

Guy Burton, a Middle East specialist and adjunct professor at the Brussels School of Governance, said China had attempted a “balancing act” again by inviting Netanyahu and Abbas for back-to-back visits – something that had happened twice before in 2013 and 2017.

Since 2013, China has offered a few peace proposals and organised symposia to call for a two-state solution, three-way dialogues, and coordinated international efforts to resolve the conflict. But these were often seen as lacking substance and results.

Burton said Netanyahu’s visit to China this time would most likely see Beijing reiterate its willingness to facilitate talks without offering any concrete plans considering the current status quo: tensions over settlement activities in the West Bank, Israeli military attacks in Jenin that killed a dozen Palestinians and the internal split in Palestine between Fatah and Hamas.

“What you don’t have with the Israelis and the Palestinians is any kind of peace process on the table … there’s absolutely no will or capacity on either the Palestinian or Israeli side to do anything here.”

However, “there’s a signalling thing going on here”, he said of China’s offer to mediate the conflict as the “new kids on the block”.

“It is a slight dig at the Americans saying, you know, you guys are nowhere,” Burton said.

Formal peace talks between Israel and Palestine have been frozen since 2014 after the US-brokered process was halted because of a reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas, the two main Palestinian political parties. The latter governs the Gaza Strip and is known for its armed resistance against Israel.

The deal led to the brief formation of a unity government led by Abbas, but it eventually fell apart in 2015 because of divisions between the two parties.

02:32

Israel attacks Palestine’s Jenin amid one of the biggest West Bank operations in 20 years

Israel attacks Palestine’s Jenin amid one of the biggest West Bank operations in 20 years

Yin Gang, a Middle Eastern affairs specialist at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences’ Institute of West Asian and African Studies, said without internal unity in Palestine, there would not be much space for China to mediate the conflict.

He said Netanyahu might press China to use its influence on Iran, which has long funded Hamas to counter Israel and the United States in the region.

“In other words, Iran needs a Palestine-Israel conflict,” he said. “In the absence of effective internal management. Israeli-Palestinian peace talks are unlikely to lead to anything.”

Pan of the CJSS said Netanyahu was less likely to focus on Iran while meeting Xi.

“It is impossible for him to develop relations with Iran now. Iran’s perception that Israel should not exist is a deadlock … So he won’t talk about Iran now. The US will not play a role in this either,” he said.

Gering of the INSS said Israel lacked the will to seek China as a mediator, and China was not serious about getting involved in the conflict, considering it had previously offered mostly “rhetoric” rather than action in its peace initiatives.

He said a meeting with Netanyahu would be “just a marketing platform” for China’s Global Development Initiative and Global Civilisation Initiative, which seek to present an alternative to the US-led global order.

“For China, it’s important to show that it’s a responsible major player. It’s important for it to juxtapose its engagement in conflict mediation versus the US.”

He said the meeting would focus mainly on trade, offering a chance for the two partners to re-engage and explore new cooperation opportunities after three years of Covid-19.

China is Israel’s second-biggest trade partner, and a free-trade pact between the two is expected this year, according to Israeli media. During Netanyahu’s last visit to China in 2017, the two countries established an Innovative Comprehensive Partnership, making Israel the second country – besides Switzerland – to forge such a relationship with China.

China’s hi-tech investments in Israel peaked in 2018 before dropping amid increased scrutiny from the US, according to data from the INSS. The country tightened its foreign investment restrictions on national security grounds last year in response to US pressure to limit Chinese investments in sensitive sectors.