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China-Philippines relations
ChinaDiplomacy

South China Sea: what next in the China-Philippines war of words over the Second Thomas Shoal?

  • Much of what Beijing does will depend on the action taken by Manila and Washington, according to a Chinese analyst
  • Both sides are not expected to escalate the situation, observers say

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A Chinese Coast Guard ship launches what the Coast Guard says is a warning water cannon spray in the direction of a Philippine vessel. Photo: China Coast Guard
Jack Lau
China and the Philippines are expected to ensure that a war of words over a clash in the South China Sea does not escalate, according to analysts in both countries.

“Both sides are actually showing initial signs of conciliation, or at least intentions to not escalate,” Manila-based geopolitical analyst Justin Baquisal said.

Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jnr also underscored the need to keep communications open while recognising that competing territorial claims were difficult to resolve for both countries, Baquisal said.
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The tensions erupted on Saturday when six Chinese coastguard ships and two maritime militia ships intercepted a much-smaller Philippine boat on its way to resupply troops stationed at the Second Thomas Shoal, a reef controlled by Manila but also claimed by Beijing, Taipei and Hanoi. Three Chinese navy corvettes were also in the area.

The Philippines said the Chinese ships separated one of two boats carrying food and other supplies from its coastguard vessel escort in a “dangerous manoeuvre” before firing a water cannon. The Chinese vessels also fired water at the Philippine coastguard ships, photos and footage of the encounter from the Philippines show.

02:13

Philippines accuses Chinese coastguard of firing water cannons at its vessels in disputed waters

Philippines accuses Chinese coastguard of firing water cannons at its vessels in disputed waters

The Philippine boats were resupplying a platoon stationed on the shoal in the BRP Sierra Madre, a rusting naval hulk acquired from the United States after the vessel had been deployed in the Vietnam war.

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