South China Sea: what next in the China-Philippines war of words over the Second Thomas Shoal?
- Much of what Beijing does will depend on the action taken by Manila and Washington, according to a Chinese analyst
- Both sides are not expected to escalate the situation, observers say

“Both sides are actually showing initial signs of conciliation, or at least intentions to not escalate,” Manila-based geopolitical analyst Justin Baquisal said.
The tensions erupted on Saturday when six Chinese coastguard ships and two maritime militia ships intercepted a much-smaller Philippine boat on its way to resupply troops stationed at the Second Thomas Shoal, a reef controlled by Manila but also claimed by Beijing, Taipei and Hanoi. Three Chinese navy corvettes were also in the area.
The Philippines said the Chinese ships separated one of two boats carrying food and other supplies from its coastguard vessel escort in a “dangerous manoeuvre” before firing a water cannon. The Chinese vessels also fired water at the Philippine coastguard ships, photos and footage of the encounter from the Philippines show.
The Philippine boats were resupplying a platoon stationed on the shoal in the BRP Sierra Madre, a rusting naval hulk acquired from the United States after the vessel had been deployed in the Vietnam war.
