Top US general offers ‘rational’ take on China’s military progress, analyst says
- Mark Milley’s impartial view may be good sign of desire in Washington to ease tensions with Beijing, observer says
- In interviews with two US broadcasters, Milley weighs in on the ‘spy balloon’ saga, Taiwan and PLA modernisation
The Chinese balloon spent a week flying over the United States and Canada before being shot down off the Atlantic Coast on orders from President Joe Biden.
Beijing has consistently denied that the object was a “spy balloon”, but it was an unmanned airship used for meteorological survey that was accidentally blown off course and drifted into American airspace.
The fallout prompted US Secretary of State Antony Blinken to postpone a highly anticipated visit to China, worsening already fraught relations.
02:50
Antony Blinken to visit China after calling off last meeting over ‘spy balloon’ incident
Milley said that after seven months of investigation, experts had determined that the object of the balloon “wasn’t spying”.
“The intelligence community, their assessment – and its’ a high-confidence assessment … there was no intelligence collection by that balloon,” Milley said.
“I would say it ... didn’t transmit any intelligence back to China.”
A Chinese military source said the conclusions about the balloon could be awkward for the People’s Liberation Army’s top brass, who were informed about the airship’s operations.
“Beijing may feel embarrassed [about the US investigation] as it might be seen by some that this showed Chinese balloon technology was not mature enough,” the source said.
“It may also put the US in a poor light because ... even a low-tech object [like the balloon] can easily breach US airspace.”
03:30
China says US balloons flew over Xinjiang, Tibet as diplomatic row deepens
On the Chinese military’s modernisation drive, Milley told CNN on Monday that it was “very possible” Washington had overestimated the PLA’s strength, as it had with the military of the former Soviet Union, and that the PLA may be incapable of attacking Taiwan “right this second”.
“I think China would make a grave strategic mistake if they attempted to attack to seize the island of Taiwan … [which] is a very, very high bar … most complex of all operations to do,” Milley said.
He repeated his assessment that Chinese President Xi Jinping’s decision to demand the PLA become a “fully modernised army” by 2027, a few years earlier than its original target of 2030, did not mean the Chinese leader already had a plan to attack Taiwan in that year.
“[Xi] wants them to have the capability to do it. And what that also means is they don’t have the capability right this second,” he added.
Antony Blinken meets Chinese Vice-President Han Zheng on UN sidelines
Zhou Chenming, a researcher with the Beijing-based Yuan Wang military science and technology think tank, said Milley’s view on the PLA’s military modernisation progress “is impartial and a rational judgment”.
“Just as Milley said, using force to take Taiwan back is just one of Beijing’s options, and it is also the worst one,” Zhou said.
“As an experienced American strategist, Milley’s recent comments could be seen as a good sign that Washington wants to ease tensions with Beijing, and that also included the recent visits of senior US officials to China covering diplomacy, commerce and other areas.”
High-level bilateral engagement between China and the US has resumed after a deep freeze earlier this year, with four top US officials in President Joe Biden’s administration visiting China in recent months.
Zhou said Beijing would expect Milley’s successor, General Charles Brown, to continue the relationship between the two militaries as “a stabiliser of Sino-US relations”.
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Shi Yinhong, an international relations professor at Renmin University, said Milley’s view was indicative of the Pentagon’s assessment of the PLA.
“Milley’s judgment about the gap with the PLA … definitely represents that of the US military, and probably that of the Biden administration itself, though some serving and retired senior officers might see it differently,” Shi said.
However, Shi said that Washington’s insistence on closer diplomatic and military ties with Taiwan would remain the key obstacle for the two militaries.
Drew Thompson, a visiting senior research fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy, said any PLA attempt to take Taiwan back would not merely be decided by their ability.
“The PLA could attack Taiwan tomorrow if they were ordered to do so, but the probability of success is not high enough to justify the risk of trying,” Thompson said.
