Little hope of Xi Jinping meeting US senators in Beijing, analysts say

A delegation from the US Senate will be the first congressional group to visit the Chinese capital in four years
The trip is not expected to yield major outcomes for China, observers say

US-China relations

Kawala Xie

Published: 11:00pm, 3 Oct 2023

Why you can trust SCMP

Chinese President Xi Jinping is not expected to meet a group of US senators in Beijing next week because of the low prospects for a concrete outcome from the trip, according to experts.

The office of US Senate Democratic leader Chuck Schumer confirmed on Tuesday that he would lead a senate delegation to China this month, becoming the first US congressional delegation to visit China in four years.

His office said the trip would feature meetings with both government officials and business leaders, Reuters reported.

Republican Senator Mike Crapo, who is co-leading the group with Schumer, told Bloomberg earlier that the trip was planned for next week.

Crapo said the delegation hoped to meet Xi, who skipped the G20 summit for the first time last month, dashing hopes of a highly anticipated meeting with US President Joe Biden.

China confirmed the trip on Wednesday but refused to say whether Xi will meet the delegation.

It is doubtful that Xi would meet Schumer. He is a China hawk who is in Beijing pushing Biden’s agenda

Einar Tangen, senior fellow at the Taihe Institute

“China welcomes the visit ... led by Schumer, the majority leader of the US Senate, and a bipartisan delegation of senators, a foreign ministry statement said.

“[We] hope this visit will enhance the US Congress’s objective understanding of China, promote dialogue and exchanges between the two countries’ legislative bodies, and inject positive factors into the development of China-US relations,” it said.

The delegation’s trip follows a flurry of visits by senior US officials in recent months, in an apparent effort by Washington and Beijing to step up engagement despite their growing rivalry.

But analysts said a meeting with Xi was unlikely, given the persistent tensions between the two powers and the lack of progress on sticking points following previous visits of US officials.

Einar Tangen, senior fellow at the Beijing-based Taihe Institute and founder of Asia Narratives, said the trip was not expected to lead to a “positive outcome” for Beijing.

“It is doubtful that Xi would meet Schumer. He is a China hawk who is in Beijing pushing Biden’s agenda,” Tangen said.

He said that if the delegation’s agenda remained to “pretend to engage China while justifying their beliefs and actions”, it would not add to the previous trips by other US officials.

“China is hosting them to show openness, but unless the US delegation is willing to engage in constructive dialogue, it’s just [public relations],” he said.

Since June, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen, climate envoy John Kerry, and Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo have been to China, with both sides agreeing to maintain communications.

But little has changed on the structural issues between the two countries.

Despite some progress on resuming people-to-people exchanges and establishing economic and financial working groups, the tit-for-tat tech competition continues and military communication lines between the two countries remain stalled.

01:20

Chinese President Xi Jinping to skip G20 summit in New Delhi, India

Schumer is known for his hawkish stance on Beijing and is a strong advocate of tougher measures against China to curb its hi-tech and military development.

His office said his goal for the trip was to “advance US economic and national security interests” while focusing on “the need for reciprocity in China for US businesses that will level the playing field for American workers, as well as on maintaining US leadership in advanced technologies for national security”.

In the interview with Bloomberg, Crapo said the delegation hoped to engage with Beijing to create opportunities for their conflicts to be resolved.

He added they would raise the issue of sanctions on US chip giant Micron Technology, which has been banned from key infrastructure projects in China.

The ban came after the US introduced sweeping semiconductor export controls on sales to China.

Chong Ja Ian, a US-China relations specialist at the National University of Singapore, said that for its part China was likely to use the talks to raise concerns about US tech restrictions, US activities in the South and East China seas and Taiwan.

He said it was unclear whether the delegation would get to meet the Chinese president and it would be worth noting the seniority of the officials representing China in the discussions to see “how seriously Beijing takes the visit”.

“Hosting the visit would be in line with ongoing efforts to re-establish more regular senior-level communication between the two sides. Having exchanges with the legislative branch of the US government is important,” he said.

03:03

US-China relations depend on strong economic ties, says US commerce chief during talks in Beijing

“It is unclear to me what Xi would get out of such a meeting at this point.

“Moreover, if the meeting creates an impression of members of the congressional delegation giving in to the [Chinese Communist Party] in domestic US politics, that could create more complications for the [US-China] relationship.

“Already, there have been more senior US visits to [China] than the other way around.”

Josef Gregory Mahoney, an international relations professor at East China Normal University, said that if a meeting with Xi did take place and was positive, then it might increase chances for a Xi-Biden summit.

He said China was likely to pursue a “wait-and-see approach on how the visitors behave” before considering a higher-level meeting.

“If they demonstrate commitments to diplomatic protocol, if they avoid grandstanding and trying to embarrass their hosts, then higher-level meetings might be possible,” he said.