Guatemala to keep Taipei ties while seeking better Beijing relations: next leader says
- The Central American country’s president-elect reaffirmed on a visit to Washington that relationship with Taiwan will continue
- Bernardo Arévalo said it is also in Guatemala’s interest to explore better trade relations with mainland China
“It is in our interest to maintain and explore relations with China. We are going to continue the relationship with Taiwan and, at the same time, expand commercial ties with Taiwan,” he told the South China Morning Post in Washington.
Guatemala has the largest economy among the 13 countries that still have relations with Taiwan, which Beijing regards as part of its territory.
Most other countries do not recognise the island as an independent state, including the US, but are opposed to a unilateral change in the status quo.
On a local radio show in June, Arevalo emphasised the need for Guatemala to “work on our trade relations and expand them in the case of China,” adding that his country would dictate its own foreign policy.
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Since his election victory, Arevalo has adopted a more cautious tone in his public remarks. He has committed to upholding relations with Taipei while indicating a willingness to engage with both Taiwan and China.
The stance won approval from the White House, which has backed Arevalo amid a complex transition of power marked by allegations of an attempted coup and electoral fraud.
During his visit to Washington on Tuesday, he met US National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan who reaffirmed the “support to president-elect Arevalo following undemocratic efforts to undermine the will of the Guatemalan people, intimidate election authorities, and prevent the peaceful transition of power”.
Speaking after an event at the Washington-based think tank the Wilson Centre, Arevalo contended that there was no inconsistency between his June remarks and his more cautious statements following the election.
“What I said in June is consistent with this position that we have now. We have said that our decision will be based on our interests”, he said.
Taiwan may be about to lose more diplomatic ground to Beijing in Central America
His pledge to maintain diplomatic relations with both Taipei and Beijing has raised eyebrows among foreign policy experts, who note that countries are often forced to choose sides under Beijing’s strict adherence to the one-China policy.
Margaret Myers, director of the US think tank Inter-American Dialogue’s Asia-Latin America Programme, weighed in on the issue, highlighting the complexities Arevalo faces in trying to navigate relations with both Taipei and Beijing.
Myers said that the belief in potential economic gains has often driven countries in the Global South to consider aligning with Beijing, citing Paraguay’s agricultural sector where producers are keen to cut ties with Taipei in favour of the more lucrative mainland market.
Whether this direct association between diplomatic ties, increases in investment, and trade flows comes to fruition remains an open question, she said.
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“This is especially true for Central American countries where we are yet to see – aside from Panama – huge investment, transformative investment, or even transformative trade in most of these countries so far.”
And yet, in contrast to this broader trend, Guatemala’s business community and other key stakeholders largely support maintaining the country’s existing relationship with Taipei, Myers said.
According to Myers, this is because of “ideological considerations and Central America’s troubled history with communism”. These groups align more closely with US views on the matter and favour continued diplomatic ties with Taipei, she said.
Guatemala urged to ditch Taiwan after new president’s election
The Chinese government is urging Guatemala to reconsider its unique stance. Foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin recently encouraged the Central American nation to “make the right decision in the fundamental long-term interests of its country and its people”.
Doing so, would “conform to the trend of historical development in our times”, Wang said.
While Myers senses no immediate plan on Arevalo’s part to sever ties with Taipei, she noted that any government could, at any point, choose to change its stance – even after assuring Taiwan of its commitment to the relationship.
In a similar vein, Honduran President Xiomara Castro initially campaigned on maintaining the status quo with Taipei but opted to sever diplomatic ties in March to establish relations with Beijing instead.
