When Xi and Biden talk at Apec, managing Taiwan will top the agenda

Washington and Beijing share an interest in easing tensions and maintaining peace and stability across the Taiwan Strait

Yet the Chinese president’s recent statements ‘don’t imply he’s content with the status quo’, an analyst says

Reading Time:4 minutes

Taiwan figures to be a major topic when Chinese President Xi Jinping meets in San Francisco with US President Joe Biden, analysts said. Illustration: Shutterstock

Published: 5:40am, 3 Nov 2023Updated: 10:30pm, 3 Nov 2023

When China President Xi Jinping and US President Biden sit down in San Francisco in two weeks, among the most contentious issues on the agenda is likely to be the increasingly perilous situation in Taiwan, analysts and former US officials said on Thursday.

After a lengthy prologue involving detailed protocol discussions, negotiations over possible deliverables, high-level official “confidence building” meetings and “will Xi, won’t Xi attend” speculation, the two leaders are set to meet on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation forum this month.

“The challenge for the [US] president going into the meetings in San Francisco is going to be this: if you look carefully at what the Chinese say about Biden and about his Taiwan policy, they don’t doubt his intentions,” said Rick Waters, managing director of Eurasia Group’s China practice and, until recently, the State Department’s deputy assistant secretary for China and Taiwan.

“They doubt his ability to affect them on Congress or on his own party or to make them transferable to whatever happens in November of 2024” when the US holds its next presidential election.

Xi Jinping and Joe Biden at their last in-person meeting, on the sidelines of the G20 summit meeting on November 14, 2022 in Bali, Indonesia. Photo: AP

In addition to US and Taiwanese elections next year, other risky variables include an often inflammatory US Congress; the potential for an unanticipated collision of ships or fighter jets in the area around Taiwan; and possible moves by Taipei or Beijing to verbally or militarily shift the status quo, analysts said at a conference in New York sponsored by the China Project.