South China Sea: Beijing flexes maritime muscles as Manila’s ‘assertive transparency’ puts it on the defensive

‘China is escalating’ as its vessels make show of force near disputed reef where rusty second world warship serves as Philippine outpost, analysts say

However, observers say Beijing must carefully calibrate its actions to avoid drawing in the US to defend its Southeast Asian ally

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A Chinese coastguard vessel maneuvers beside the Philippine coastguard ship BRP Cabra as they approach the Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea on November 10. Photo: AP

Published: 10:00pm, 18 Dec 2023Updated: 11:35am, 19 Dec 2023

China is likely to ramp up its actions in stand-offs with the Philippines in the South China Sea as Manila’s “assertive transparency” tactic has put its powerful rival on the back foot, observers say.

However, they warned Beijing must carefully calibrate any escalation to avoid drawing in the US to defend its Southeast Asian ally.

Chinese and Philippine vessels have been locked in frequent stand-offs – some involving collisions in recent months – over the control of reefs in the South China Sea, making the strategic waterway a more dangerous flashpoint than the Taiwan Strait.

China has appeared taken aback by the Philippines, which is taking a more direct approach in confronting Beijing and its massive and heavily armed patrol boats.

Despite repeated blockades by the Chinese coastguard, the Philippines has continued its regular resupply missions – led by fishermen and civic groups – to shore up the BRP Sierra Madre, a World War II-era navy ship that was deliberately grounded in 1999 as an outpost at the Second Thomas Shoal, to prevent it from falling into the sea.

Manila has also invited the international media to shine a spotlight on what it describes as China’s “aggressive activities” in the strategic waterway.

In an incident earlier this month, Chinese Coast Guard ships fired high-intensity water cannons at a ship with journalists on board, which had been deployed by the Philippine fisheries bureau on a mission to provide fuel to fishermen near the contested Scarborough Shoal, known in Chinese as Huangyan Island.