Could China’s dispute with the Philippines derail plans to resume military talks with US?

Washington and Beijing agreed to revive talks between the two militaries but a string of South China Sea confrontations threaten to complicate matters

The talks could help reduce the risk of accidental collisions and misunderstandings – but analysts say the two sides must be careful to stop things escalating

Reading Time:4 minutes

A Philippine coast guard member looks on as a Chinese coast guard vessel chases the Philippine coast guard vessel BRP Cabra while approaching Second Thomas Shoal during a resupply mission in the disputed South China Sea in November. Photo: AP

Published: 10:00pm, 19 Dec 2023Updated: 3:30am, 20 Dec 2023

Tensions between China and the Philippines over the South China Sea underscore the need for Beijing to resume military-to-military talks with the United States, analysts have said.

Washington, a long-time ally of Manila, has stressed that its commitments to the Philippines are “ironclad” and criticised Beijing for “dangerous and destabilising” behaviour following a string of recent incidents, including collisions between ships and the use of water cannons against vessels trying to take supplies to Philippine troops stationed on the Second Thomas Shoal.

But China has, in turn, accused the US of being a troublemaker and inciting “provocative” actions from the Philippines.

Collin Koh, a researcher from Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, said the US wanted to establish what China’s intentions were and possibly warn against escalating things further.

“But my question is whether the other side will pick up the call – that’ll demonstrate whether the Chinese are indeed seeking to deliberately escalate,” Koh said.

Last month in San Francisco, Chinese President Xi Jinping and his US counterpart Joe Biden agreed to restore military communication channels, which had been put on ice after the then US House speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan last year, a trip that Beijing said violated the one-China principle.