How will Beijing respond to Manila’s plans to build on South China Sea reef?

The Philippines allocates funds to build ‘permanent structure’ on disputed Second Thomas Shoal

The move will probably not cause ‘full-scale escalation’ of tensions but China is prepared to address further provocations, observers say

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Beijing and Manila have been locked in confrontations in the South China Sea near Second Thomas Shoal over the past year. Photo: AFP

Published: 2:42pm, 3 Jan 2024Updated: 5:32pm, 3 Jan 2024

Manila’s approval of funding to build a “permanent structure” on a disputed reef is unlikely to lead to a “full-scale escalation” in the South China Sea, but Beijing has “many plans” to respond if the Philippines goes along with US provocations in the region, analysts said.

Tensions between Beijing and Manila over the Second Thomas Shoal were renewed last month after the Philippine congress allocated an undisclosed amount of money to build a permanent facility on the disputed reef, prompting strong condemnation from Beijing.

The Philippine military said the facility would probably serve as a shelter for fishermen.

Beijing considers the Second Thomas Shoal – known as Renai Jiao in China and Ayungin Shoal in the Philippines – its territory and has vowed to “respond resolutely” to protect its sovereignty.

Zhu Feng, a South China Sea specialist at Nanjing University, said Manila’s latest move “adds fuel” to the tensions between China and the Philippines. But he questioned whether the Philippine facility would even be built, noting that the success of the project would depend on communication between the two sides.