What’s at stake for China as border tensions flare between Iran and Pakistan?
- Tehran and Islamabad have mounted attacks across each other’s borders to target rebel groups
- Beijing has close ties with both countries and a big interest in quelling turbulence in the region
But the attacks – the latest episode in a turbulent area at the centre of an independence movement that also involves part of Afghanistan – are unlikely to descend into broader conflict, they say.
Two children died on Tuesday night when Iran fired on two targets in Balochistan province in Pakistan, according to Pakistani authorities.
Tehran said it was targeting Jaish al-Adl, a Sunni separatist group that operates mostly in Iran’s Sistan and Baluchestan province bordering Pakistan, where the ethnic Baloch are people seeking independence.
Islamabad said it too was targeting rebel armed groups hiding in Iran.
The strikes triggered a series of diplomatic protests between the two sides.
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Pakistan retaliates with missile strikes into Iran, killing 9 after Tehran attack on Pakistan soil
China, a close partner of both countries, said it was following the situation closely and would like to play “a constructive role” in easing tensions.
The ministry urged Tehran and Islamabad to “remain calm and exercise restraint” and avoid escalation of the tension.
Abdul Basit, an associate research fellow at Singapore’s S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, said the stakes for China were high in both countries.
“Tensions between Islamabad and Tehran are detrimental to Beijing’s economic and geopolitical interests, while a stable Iran-Pakistan-Afghanistan region opens several opportunities for China to expand into Central Asia and beyond,” Basit said.
“China still maintains a low-key approach in the Iran-Pakistan tensions. But through backchannel contacts, China will play a more proactive role in bringing tensions … to a close.”
As China’s “iron brother”, Islamabad has a close partnership with Beijing, with cooperation ranging from economic investment to defence.
Pakistan is the largest buyer of China’s weapons. Nearly 54 per cent of China’s major arms export between 2018 and 2022 went to the nation, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.
Pakistan is also home to dozens of projects related to the multibillion-dollar China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, a centrepiece of China’s Belt and Road Initiative.
The corridor is part of Beijing’s efforts to connect its far west Xinjiang to the Arabian Sea and key components are in Balochistan, one of Pakistan’s poorest provinces.
China and Iran are also forging stronger relations, with the two countries signing an agreement in 2021 reportedly covering areas from investment to defence.
Despite sanctions imposed by the US, China’s oil imports from Iran jumped 48 per cent year on year in the first half of 2023, making Iran its third-largest oil supplier.
Tehran also sees Beijing as an escape route from international isolation. Last year, China helped broker a peace deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and Tehran became a member of the Beijing-led Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in July.
This year, Iran will officially join Brics, an association of five major emerging national economies: Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa.
China banks on stability with Afghanistan belt and road agreement: experts
Zhu Yongbiao, from the school of politics and international relations at Lanzhou University, said that maintaining border security, especially curbing the rise of separatist forces in the region, was crucial for China for economic and political reasons.
“[A stable border situation] will be beneficial for China in terms of belt and road project construction. Meanwhile, if the conflict escalates, the degradation of the security environment may affect China’s western border, which [China] does not want to happen,” he said.
Zhu said Pakistan, Iran, and Afghanistan often accused each other of harbouring terrorist organisations and further escalation would affect Afghanistan.
China is looking to Taliban-controlled Kabul for help to contain the East Turkestan Islamic Movement, which Beijing blames for violence and ethnic tensions in Xinjiang.
Iran and Pakistan are also two crucial partners for China in its counterterrorism efforts in the region. Last year, China began regular anti-terror talks with Pakistan and Iran “to tackle the cross-border movement of terrorists”, the first dialogue of its kind with Iran and Pakistan.
Meanwhile, since Iran and Pakistan are both members of the SCO, an escalation may undermine Beijing’s ambition to lead the Global South, according to Zhu.
“The SCO’s major responsibility is to maintain cooperation on security. If two of its members clash, that will seriously affect the SCO’s reliability and its capability, which is bad for Beijing,” Zhu said.
Basit said tensions between Iran and Pakistan were not expected to escalate and both countries could use diplomatic channels to resolve the situation, especially as Pakistan headed into a general election next month, and Iran faced greater security challenges over conflicts in the Middle East from Gaza to the Red Sea.
Zhu added that the border clashes between Pakistan and Iran had continued for a long time and the two countries had plenty of experience in de-escalation.
