European officials, diplomats and observers agree that the war is in a very different place than when Li Hui, Beijing’s special envoy for Eurasia, last toured European capitals in May 2023, on the cusp of Ukraine’s military counteroffensive.

And on Li’s current roadshow from Moscow to Kyiv via Brussels, Paris, Berlin and Warsaw, they expect him to “test the water” on how much Europe’s view of the situation has changed, and whether that provides Beijing with an opening to umpire peace talks.

“China believes that geopolitical landscape is changing, and that so-called peace negotiations are more likely,” said Yurii Poita, the head of the Asia-Pacific section at the Centre for Army, Conversion and Disarmament Studies, a Ukrainian think tank.

After Li’s meeting with Russia’s deputy foreign minister Mikhail Galuzin on Saturday, the Chinese foreign ministry said it was “ready to continue its efforts to promote talks for peace, carry out shuttle diplomacy, mediate and build consensus”.

Poita expects Li to float the concept of Beijing as a mediator throughout his trip, but is sceptical whether it will be well-received. In Ukraine and across Europe, China’s close ties with Russia have dented its image.

A public-opinion poll published by the Razumkov Centre in Ukraine in January found that 72.5 per cent of Ukrainians held negative views towards China, up from 59 per cent just a year earlier. Almost two-thirds of Ukrainians viewed Chinese President Xi Jinping in a negative light, compared to just over half last year.

“Ukraine understands that any so-called peace negotiation is not about peace. It’s about declaring a capitulation sooner or later,” Poita said.

Despite the public perception, Ukraine has ramped up its efforts to engage China – and there are signs that Kyiv is taking Beijing’s role in resolving the conflict more seriously than its citizens or officials elsewhere in Europe.

Ahead of the war’s second anniversary on February 24, the Chinese ambassador to Ukraine Fan Xianrong was among the dozens of diplomats posing with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv, in a photo the leader posted to X on February 22.

In Munich last month, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba vigorously pursued a meeting with counterpart Wang Yi, and the pair eventually spoke on the sidelines of the security summit.

Vita Golod, chair of the Ukrainian Association of Sinologists, said that the public perception of China is not shared among Zelensky’s top brass.

“Ukrainian people see China as a hostile country. But at the same time, the Ukrainian president and officials still want to see China at the same table with other countries to discuss [Zelensky’s] peace talks,” she said.

“I think Ukraine still sees a Chinese mediating role because China is the only country who is welcome to Moscow and Kyiv at the same time.”

Even so, analysts said, it is unlikely Beijing will win the trust of the Ukrainians without offering more than just shuttle diplomacy.

On his last trip to Kyiv, Li was given a list of steps China could take – short of condemning Russia – to help Ukraine. These included working to return children transported to Russia; maintaining the openness of the Black Sea grain corridor; and helping ensure the safety of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station, which has been occupied by Russian forces.

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“China would like to play a mediating role to show it is a responsible player and win some points in the international arena,” Golod said.

However, if China truly sought to make a difference, “we can talk about peace negotiation scenarios, but at the same time, we need to talk with China on exact scenarios”, Golod said, referring to tactical issues on which Beijing could help.

Other European officials regard Kyiv’s efforts to engage Beijing as a reflection of its broader efforts to court the Global South.

In Brussels, where Li dined with EU officials on Monday evening, sources noted China’s leadership of the loose group of developing nations – especially since the Middle East crisis exploded in October – as giving it unique influence.

“It’s a lot to do about the China being the voice of Global South. Ukrainians really believe that [China] can influence things and looking at how difficult it’s been for them with the South Africans or Brazilians, China has some leverage over them as well,” a senior EU official, who spoke on condition of anonymity, said.

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Ukraine war two years on: disease, displacement and demands for aid

Ukraine war two years on: disease, displacement and demands for aid

A French diplomat said that while there was little expectation of China doing Europe a favour on Russia, there was some surprise when it “went the other way, picking the Global South in the ‘West versus the rest’ fight”.

“Paris was hoping for Beijing to be more assertive, but … to help the French narrative, i.e., say that the war in Ukraine should end or something like that. What China did instead was to be more assertive on Gaza, telling Western powers they had it coming. Not a great look for cooperation,” the diplomat said.

This, analysts said, helps to explain Kyiv’s frequent requests for Beijing to join multilateral talks on peace, which have not involved Russia.

“If China’s involved in talks like the ones in Jeddah that are more directed at the Global South, this also kind of legitimises Kyiv’s position among those countries that are not fully in the Western camp,” said Jakub Jakobowski, deputy director of the Centre for Eastern Studies, a Polish think tank.

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For Lu Xiaoyu, a Chinese academic who spent a month in Ukraine last year, the situation is more straightforward.

Lu, an assistant professor at Peking University’s School of International Studies, met with Zelensky and his advisers, whom he described as “realistic” on China compared to their EU counterparts.

On the Sinica podcast released this weekend, he said that Zelensky told him China can help Ukraine on three issues.

“Firstly it’s about openly respecting Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. And secondly, it’s about being very clear on the non-use of nuclear weapons.

“And thirdly, no selling of lethal weapons to Russia. Those have been delivered as the red lines for Ukraine,” Lu said, adding that, for now, China had kept to those terms.