Niger cosies up to ‘new friends’ China and Russia just days after sending US military packing
- In the two weeks since Niger severed military ties with the US, it has held several meetings with Chinese and Russian officials
- Observers say China wants to grow its oil and mining interests in the African nation while Russia wants stronger military cooperation
Bazoum was a key US ally. Since his departure, relations between Niger and the West, especially France and the US, have deteriorated, culminating in their troops being ordered to pack up and move out.
But while Niger has been distancing itself from its former Western partners it has been moving closer to China and Russia.
Each of those new relationships offer something different to the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland – Niger’s ruling military council.
Observers say Russia wants to develop a stronger military cooperation while China is keen to grow and protect its oil and mining interests.
It helps that, as well as its oilfields in the south of the country, Niger has Africa’s highest-grade uranium ore in the north. Its uranium accounts for around 5 per cent of global mining output.
Niger breaks off military cooperation with US, as junta moves closer to Russia
China National Uranium Corporation, whose parent company is China National Nuclear Corporation, has been carrying out studies on restarting production in northern Niger.
With Niger’s crude oil, though, China already has a strong foothold.
On March 18, CNPC executives, led by Zhou Zuokun, its country managing director, met Niger’s Minister of Interior, Public Security and Territorial Administration, General Mohamed Toumba, with Niger’s oil resources “at the heart of discussions”.
Two days later, on March 20, special representative of the Chinese government for African affairs Liu Yuxi led a delegation to Niger that met Prime Minister Ali Mahaman Lamine Zeine to discuss the “continuation of current development projects”.
Then, on March 22, Chinese ambassador to Niger Jiang Feng met Abdourahamane Tchiani, the president of the ruling military council, to discuss the “strengthening of friendly relations and the strategic partnership uniting Niamey and Beijing”.
On March 26, it was Russia’s turn, with Tchiani having a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin as the pair discussed “the need to strengthen their security cooperation … to face current threats”, according to a readout released by Niger.
Tchiani said Niger was grateful for Moscow’s recent support to “Niamey in its quest for national sovereignty”.
David Shinn, a professor at George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs, said while both Russia and China have welcomed the departure of US military personnel from Niger, their specific goals are quite different.
“Niger appears open to that arrangement,” Shinn said. “However, it is not clear whether China is collaborating with Russia on the assignment of Africa Corps personnel to Niger, but it has no interest in sending Chinese forces there,” Shinn said.
He said China’s interest is in protecting its oil investment in Niger.
“China will do what it can to protect these interests, including, if necessary, not objecting to the assignment of Russian troops or mercenaries to Niger,” Shinn said.
According to S&P Global Commodity Insights, Niger could begin shipping its first oil cargo next month, initially starting with 90,000 barrels a day before ramping up to 110,000 barrels a day.
It has been producing 20,000 barrels a day from its Agadem Rift Basin, but until now that has primarily been used domestically due to the lack of an export route.
Since Chinese foreign policy is regime agnostic, it was never in question whether China would continue working with the junta
Gyude Moore, a senior policy fellow at the Washington-based Centre for Global Development and a former minister in Liberia, said China has shown a much higher threshold for risk tolerance across markets, including in Niger. He said the Niger-China relationship has been two decades in the making.
“Since Chinese foreign policy is regime agnostic, it was never in question whether China would continue working with the junta,” Moore said.
China and Niger entered a production-sharing agreement for the development of oil in 2008, he said. By 2020, China had invested around US$2.7 billion in Niger to develop both oil and uranium. Further development of the Agadem oilfield should take the total investment to more than US$4 billion.
“Niger’s export of oil through the pipeline is thus the endpoint of a very long investment process. It could be a linchpin of a breakthrough,” Moore said.
Francesco Sassi, a research fellow in energy geopolitics and markets at consultancy Ricerche Industriali ed Energetiche, said there are few doubts that China will continue to play a leading role in Niger’s oil industry amid the West African nation’s international isolation.
Sassi said Chinese investments and know-how have been key to developing the Agadem oilfield and pipeline.
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“The project represents a positive result of Beijing’s energy diplomacy in Africa,” Sassi said. “And its finalisation against the background of such an unstable scenario unfolding in Niger suggests CNPC’s presence has been protected by the same junta.
“It is in Beijing’s interest that Niger’s oil is finally traded on the international market to help curb supply instability.”
John Calabrese, a senior fellow at the Middle East Institute in Washington said it seemed clear that Niger had found “new friends”.
But he pointed out that the departure of Niger’s former allies in the West could have unexpected security implications, particularly for China, which he noted is Niger’s second-largest investor after France.
