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South China Sea: will Beijing hold back during the US-Philippine Balikatan military drills?
- Next week’s iteration of the annual joint exercise will be the biggest and a clear signal to Beijing, observers say
- China has a range of possible responses, some with the risk of mishaps
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Next week’s massive Philippine-US naval drills to be held in the midst of flaring tensions in the South China Sea will put both Beijing’s self-proclaimed restraint and the fragile US-China detente to the test, observers said.
In a show of force aimed at China, the three-week Balikatan “shoulder to shoulder” exercise gets under way on Monday and will be the biggest held between the two countries since its launch in 1991.
The exercise is meant to underscore Washington’s commitment to its regional allies and its deepening involvement in the maritime dispute.
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But the drills and Manila’s continued pivot towards Washington could also reinforce Beijing’s view that Manila is increasingly relying on external interference to internationalise the maritime dispute and counter China, according to pundits.
This year the annual exercise will for the first time be conducted beyond the 12 nautical mile territorial waters of the Philippines, including in areas facing Taiwan and the disputed waters in the South China Sea, both potential flashpoints between Beijing and Washington.
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Why is the Philippines aligning itself with the US after years of close China ties under Duterte
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In another first, Philippine Coast Guard staff will also be among the 17,000 or so troops taking part. Most of the personnel will be from the Philippines and the US, with contributions from Australia and France.
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