Are US-China relations destined to end up as a ‘new cold war’?

Antony Blinken is the latest senior US official to visit China, but some analysts believe Washington needs to set out a clear vision for future relations

Although both sides may wish to avoid outright conflict, there are profound differences and a lack of trust that will be very difficult to overcome

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Published: 6:00am, 2 May 2024

Ties between the United States and China are on a “long trajectory of decline” despite recent efforts to stabilise the relationship, according to diplomatic observers who point to the deep mistrust that remains between the two sides.

With some describing the situation as a “new cold war”, there are growing calls within Washington for the US to formulate a clearer policy on how it wishes to engage with China.

Zhiqun Zhu, a professor of international relations at Bucknell University in the US, said both sides viewed stability as a priority as shown by recent high-level exchanges, including last month’s phone call between Presidents Xi Jinping and Joe Biden, as well as recent visits by US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen and Secretary of State Antony Blinken.

He said that with Biden trying to win November’s election and dealing with crises in Ukraine and the Middle East, “the last thing he wants now is a conflict with another great power”.

Likewise with Xi, a “smooth working relationship with the US is imperative” as he grapples with economic challenges at home and rising tensions in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait.

“In this context, it is not hard to understand why both leaders want to maintain stability and keep communication channels open in the relationship,” Zhu said.

“Managing this complex relationship is never going to be easy, but it seems that both sides are cautious and are trying to avoid conflict. This is a better approach than a confrontational one.”