South China Sea: Beijing may take ‘strong countermeasures’ over dispute if Manila keeps pushing, analysts warn

War of words over disputed Second Thomas Shoal goes up a notch as purported transcript of deal prompts call for Chinese diplomats to be expelled

‘China has been on defensive but if the Philippines continues to push, I don’t think China will show any mercy’, says one observer

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Crew on board a Philippine Coast Guard vessel keep watch as a Chinese coastguard vessel blocks their way to a resupply mission at Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea in March. Photo: Reuters

Published: 9:00pm, 10 May 2024Updated: 9:19pm, 10 May 2024

Maritime confrontations with the Philippines might provoke “strong countermeasures” from China, observers have warned, as the rival South China Sea claimants continue their war of words over a purported deal that Manila denies being a part of.

Neither side looked likely to back down after China publicised the transcript of what it said was a phone conversation with a senior Philippine military official over “a new model for management” of the Second Thomas Shoal.

The Manila-controlled submerged reef – less than 200 nautical miles (370km) from the Philippine island of Palawan – is part of the Spratly Islands chain also claimed by Beijing as the Nansha Islands.

The Philippines denies the existence of any such agreement with China and has warned its public against “falling for a false narrative”.

In the latest escalation in tensions, the Chinese foreign ministry on Friday urged the Philippines to “stop infringing on China’s right and provoking China”.

This came a few hours after Philippine national security adviser Eduardo Ano echoed a call on Wednesday from Defence Secretary Gilberto Teodoro for the Philippine foreign ministry to “take appropriate actions against individuals in the Chinese embassy … for violating Philippine law, particularly the Anti-Wire Tapping Act as well as for serious breaches of diplomatic protocols and conventions”.