Jakarta’s ties with Beijing could be tested by South China Sea clashes, think tank warns

Whether Indonesia can keep friendship with China amid ‘dramatic geopolitical changes’ will need ‘superb political wisdom’: Beijing-based foreign policy group
Report calls for Prabowo Subianto to work with China to lead other nations in jointly managing regional disputes amid side-picking pressures from Washington

China-Asean relations

Cyril Ip

Published: 2:00pm, 24 May 2024

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Indonesia has “vigorously promoted” ties with China but potential clashes in the South China Sea could test these thriving relations, a leading Chinese think tank has warned.

Whether Jakarta can maintain its friendship with Beijing amid “dramatic geopolitical changes” will require “superb political wisdom”, according to Luo Yongkun, deputy director of Southeast Asian and Oceanian Studies at the China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations.

In a commentary published on Thursday, the research professor at the state-affiliated think tank in Beijing highlighted Indonesia’s choice to develop ties with China – in spite of the United States’ regional strategy to curb Beijing’s influence.

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Indonesia’s new leader Prabowo Subianto meets Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing

“The US is vigorously promoting its ‘Indo-Pacific strategy’ and wooing Southeast Asian countries to choose sides. However, Indonesia has not joined the US ‘anti-China camp’ and instead vigorously promoted relations with China,” said Luo, who was named a “Presidential Friend of Indonesia” in 2010.

With its Indo-Pacific strategy, Washington says it aims to build a region that is “free and open, connected, prosperous, secure, and resilient” with its allies and partners.

The strategy has been welcomed by the Philippines but viewed with caution by other Asean states and has ushered in more military exercises.

In his decade as Indonesian president, Joko Widodo has strengthened ties with China, with bilateral economic cooperation reaching new heights. A “2+2” dialogue mechanism for the two countries’ foreign ministers and defence ministers was agreed upon in October.

In a show of friendship, Indonesian president-elect Prabowo Subianto visited China as his first overseas destination after his election in February. Observers, though, said his subsequent stopover in Japan affirmed Jakarta’s commitment to neutrality in regional politics.

Indonesia is not a claimant in the South China Sea, but Luo said Jakarta and Beijing faced “maritime delimitation disputes”. Indonesia’s exclusive economic zone in the North Natuna Sea falls within China’s “nine-dash line” – Beijing’s territorial claim in the waterway.

“In recent years, the disputes between China and Indonesia over the Natuna issue have significantly reduced, but Indonesia is still very worried and wary of China,” Luo said, referring to Indonesia’s opposition to China’s claims over most of the disputed territories in its new “standard map”.

Prabowo and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida hold talks at the prime minister’s office in Tokyo on April 3. Photo: EPA-EFE

In a joint statement by the US and Indonesia last August, during then-defence-minister Prabowo’s visit to Washington, the two countries stated that Beijing’s claims in the South China Sea were “inconsistent with international law as reflected in the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea”.

Luo noted that “in the current context, if a conflict breaks out in the South China Sea, China-Indonesia relations, China-Asean relations, and the regional order centred on Asean will face severe tests, or trigger changes in the regional geopolitical structure, which is not in the interests of all parties in the region”.

It was “imperative” for China and Indonesia to lead regional nations in strengthening cooperation and jointly managing disputes concerning the South China Sea, Luo concluded.