Will US and China be able to lower risks before the new president takes office?
Both sides will try to build on the momentum from US national security adviser Jake Sullivan’s visit, but may find they have limited room for manoeuvre
Sullivan’s trip, the first by a US national security adviser in eight years, may lay the groundwork for a meeting between Presidents Xi Jinping and Joe Biden, and the two leaders have already agreed to talk by phone in the coming weeks.
Any meeting – which could take place at the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) or Group of 20 summits – would take place after the US presidential election in November. Beijing is likely to be extremely cautious in the run-up to the vote, especially given the possibility of a Donald Trump victory.
Observers also warned that even if a face-to-face meeting, or a trip to China by Biden, provided the opportunity to clarify their positions before the new president took over, it was not certain that it could make a clear difference to the relationship between the two countries.
Li Cheng, a professor of political science at the University of Hong Kong, said both Xi and Biden were keen to “make sure US-China relations are stabilised at this critical moment. They do not want to change the direction.”
Li, who is the founding director of the university’s Centre on Contemporary China and the World, said the two leaders would seek to “find a floor that prevents the relationship [from] going to hell or a military confrontation”.
“That explains why they formed … a dialogue along with various mechanisms to discuss economic and security issues and even international cooperation.”