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Alyssa Chen

Unpredictable US trade policies could push countries to strengthen their China ties as a hedge against instability, according to a Brookings Institution trade policy expert.
Joshua Meltzer, a senior fellow in the global economy and development programme at the Washington-based think tank, made the comments during a virtual discussion organised by the Centre for Globalisation Hong Kong on Tuesday.
He said the trend of countries looking to alternatives as a hedge against US uncertainty would continue in the short term.
“China is clearly going to try to make the most of this moment to be the alternative partner of choice for countries,” said Meltzer, a former consultant to the World Bank on trade and privacy matters.
“It is clear that a lot of these countries need to at least signal that they are speaking to China and then creating options for themselves so that they do not feel beholden or so exposed to [US President Donald] Trump.”
He said that how the trend played out would depend on whether the Trump administration managed to stabilise on policy.
“If it is a continuation of highly erratic tariffs, threats and declining competence in the US, then we’ll see more of this hedging take place, and more scope for China to build more durable relations with other countries.”
According to an April 15 report by The Wall Street Journal, the Trump administration plans to leverage tariff negotiations to pressure trading partners to reduce their dealings with China. This includes urging them to refuse to allow Chinese companies to ship goods through their countries.
Several Southeast Asian economies, such as Vietnam, have served as key transit routes for Chinese exports to the US.
Meltzer noted that the ripple effects of the tariff war were being felt globally, and Beijing clearly understood the possibility that the US might pressure countries during trade talks to take actions that could affect their long-term relations with China.
However, he cautioned that it would be “foolish” for Washington to force Southeast Asian nations, which have historically declined to align closely with either country, to choose between the US and China.
Meltzer said Washington’s goal should be to build durable economic relations with these countries to give them options.


Earlier this month, the Trump administration placed import taxes of 145 per cent on China, bringing the effective tariff rate to about 156 per cent. Beijing’s new levies on US goods have risen to 125 per cent, also on top of earlier-imposed tariffs.
The Wall Street Journal reported on Wednesday that the Trump administration was considering reducing those tariffs to a range between 50 and 65 per cent.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Wednesday that the high-tariff status quo between the two countries was not “sustainable”. He noted that tariffs would need to be scaled back before trade talks could move forward, but emphasised that Trump would not reduce tariffs unilaterally.
He also said there was an opportunity for a “big deal” on trade between Beijing and Washington if China was willing to adjust its export-led manufacturing economy.
Trump told reporters on Tuesday that the tariffs on China would “come down substantially”, but would not fall to zero. He added that he would be “very nice” to China and not play hardball with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.
When asked for comments on US reports saying the two countries were in negotiations and might eventually reach a deal, Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Guo Jiakun said on Thursday that there had been false reports, but the door for trade talks was wide open if they took place on the basis of equality, respect and mutual benefit.
“As far as I know, there have been no consultations or negotiations between China and the US on tariff issues, let alone any agreement,” he said.


Meltzer noted that tariff exemptions, such as those on electronic products, reflected the US administration’s “pragmatic” approach, and tariffs could potentially be rolled back if Beijing and Washington were to explore ways to reach a deal in bilateral talks.
However, the scope of a major deal between Beijing and Washington would not be too wide due to the harsh tone on China within the US Congress among both Republicans and Democrats, according to Meltzer. He added that in certain sectors, goods would fall under the umbrella of economic and national security, limiting economic integration between the two powers.
“Even if Trump himself wants to move a bit on [a major deal], he is going to feel quite constrained by politics and Congress,” he said.
According to Meltzer, the ultimate end-game of the tit-for-tat tariffs appears to be ensuring that “economic costs of reduced trade investment are not too sharp and sudden, and that the relationship can continue on some footing”. But he added that they would remain locked in a strategic competition.
He said that Beijing and Washington were “heading in a direction of more tension, more competition and more decoupling of the two economies”.
“Even in the event that there is some bilateral discussion that seeks to wind down some of these tariffs in a more pragmatic way, it is hard to see this trajectory changing in any meaningful direction.”
He said a more feasible outcome could involve “constrained and limited” agreements between Beijing and Washington in areas of trade and investment that were less sensitive, allowing certain exchanges to continue.
However, this would come with the acknowledgement that the two nations would avoid reliance on each other in some key domains, Meltzer said.
Shen Dingli, a professor at the Institute of International Studies at Fudan University, who also spoke at the event, said if Beijing wished to maintain its previous level of trade surplus without the US, it would have to look for peripheral countries to absorb Chinese exports, which was unlikely.


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China has room to build durable relations with other nations as they hedge against Trump uncertainty, Brookings Institution fellow says


China has room to build durable relations with other nations as they hedge against Trump uncertainty, Brookings Institution fellow says.


US tariff policies could push countries to strengthen China ties: trade expert

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}China has room to build durable relations with other nations as they hedge against Trump uncertainty, Brookings Institution fellow says

China has room to build durable relations with other nations as they hedge against Trump uncertainty, Brookings Institution fellow says