China warns of fallout from Israel’s strikes on Iran – and eyes role in easing crisis

Beijing has voiced “grave concern” over the potential fallout from Israeli strikes on Iran and urged all sides to prevent further escalation. Diplomatic observers also highlighted China’s potential in coordinating with stakeholders and brokering a ceasefire. Foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian said on Friday that China firmly opposed any violations of Iran’s sovereignty, security, and territorial integrity, as well as actions that “escalate the tension”. “The sudden escalation in the region benefits no one,” Lin said. “China calls on all parties to take actions conducive to promoting regional peace and stability, while avoiding further deterioration of the situation.” He added that China was prepared to play a constructive role in de-escalating the crisis. Israel said it launched a pre-emptive strike on Iran’s nuclear programme and other military targets across the country and stated the attacks would last for several days. Speaking to journalists on condition of anonymity, an Israeli military official said the Iranian government was advancing a “secret programme” to develop nuclear weapons, had thousands of ballistic missiles, and had been distributing weapons and arms to proxy groups across the region. The strikes have fuelled mounting concerns that the long-standing tensions between the two nations could escalate into a full-scale war involving the two most powerful militaries in the Middle East. Analysts said the trajectory of the development would partly hinge on Washington’s next steps, while Beijing held the potential to act as a mediator. Zhu Yongbiao, professor at the school of politics and international relations at Lanzhou University, said much would depend on the degree of Iran’s restraint and the role of the US in the process. “Specifically, whether the US will take significant measures to pressure Israel. As of now, the US appears unwilling to see the situation escalate further,” he said. Zhu said he believed there was still room for Beijing to play a constructive role, such as by coordinating with Washington and Middle Eastern countries or under the United Nations frameworks. The attack unfolded as Washington and Tehran were set to begin their sixth round of negotiations over Iran’s nuclear activities on Sunday in Oman. If an agreement were to be achieved, it could involve Washington easing some of its severe economic sanctions on Iran in exchange for Tehran significantly reducing or halting its uranium enrichment activities. Since last month, Washington has taken a firmer stand in nuclear negotiations with Iran, insisting that any enrichment beyond zero is unacceptable. But Tehran has insisted on its right to maintain a civilian nuclear energy programme. Li Weijian, senior research fellow at the Centre for West Asian and African Studies at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, noted that China and Russia’s support for Iran’s peaceful use of nuclear energy – highlighted during a trilateral meeting in Beijing in March – bolstered Tehran’s confidence to reject US demands. “On this point, China’s role in addressing the issue will be more and more important in the future,” he added. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the United States was not involved in the strikes carried out by Israel against Iran. “Israel advised us that they believe this action was necessary for its self-defence,” he said in a statement on Friday. Several Iranian nuclear scientists and high-level officials – including the commander-in-chief of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, Hossein Salami – were confirmed to have been killed in the opening strikes. But the Iranian foreign ministry pointed a finger at Washington, saying the Israeli attacks “could not have been carried out without coordination with and approval” of the US. Trita Parsi, executive vice-president of the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, said the Israeli strikes would undermine the Washington-Tehran talks. “The immediate impact of these strikes is that they will derail talks, crucial time will be lost, and the Iranian position will harden – if diplomacy can even be revived at this point. This is probably the result the Israelis were looking for,” he said. “Trump’s diplomacy with Iran was as much of a target here as Iran’s nuclear programme,” Parsi added. Li in Shanghai added that the regional developments “created a heightened sense of crisis” for Israel. “It would be an unfavourable development for Israel if Washington no longer provided Israel with the unconditional support it has relied on in the past and even works to ease tensions with its primary rival, Iran, through negotiations,” he added. A day before the attack, the International Atomic Energy Agency’s board of governors passed a resolution declaring Iran’s noncompliance with its nuclear safeguards obligations for the first time in nearly 20 years. China, Russia and Burkina Faso voted against the resolution. The region has been increasingly alarmed over Iran’s uranium enrichment activity, which has achieved 60 per cent purity – a major step towards weapons-grade material. Yan Wei, deputy dean of the school of country and region studies at China’s Northwest University, said there was a possibility that it would evolve into a direct confrontation, but the outcome would depend on the international community’s mediation and intervention, especially from countries such as the US and China. “If the US truly doesn’t want to see a larger-scale conflict between Iran and Israel, then current developments may not fully align with Trump’s strategic retreat from the Middle East,” Yan said. “Under these circumstances, I believe a large-scale war between the two countries is still unlikely in the near term, but there remains the possibility of reciprocal attacks between Israel and Iran within a certain scope.” Following the strikes, the Chinese embassies in Israel and Iran urged citizens to closely monitor the developments and take safety precautions against potential attacks. Andrea Ghiselli, a lecturer at the University of Exeter and head of research for the China-Mediterranean (ChinaMed) project at the University of Turin, said the developments could intensify concerns in Chinese policy circles about the stability of Iran’s government, particularly following Syria’s civil war and the weakening of former Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad’s government. “[Chinese officials] might face difficult choices if the Iranian regime comes too close to falling: accept the loss or start to provide substantial support, for example, in the form of military assistance,” he said. “For the moment, it is very likely that China will wait and see, and hope that the situation does not get worse.” Additional reporting by Enoch Wong

China warns of fallout from Israel’s strikes on Iran – and eyes role in easing crisis

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Beijing voices ‘grave concern’ over Israel’s attacks, while analysts say future of conflict depends on how the US and China intervene

Beijing voices ‘grave concern’ over Israel’s attacks, while analysts say future of conflict depends on how the US and China intervene