China’s influence is growing in Central Asia. What does that mean for Russia?

Beijing focuses on development as it avoids challenging Moscow as Central Asia’s dominant power and security guarantor, analysts say

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Chinese President Xi Jinping delivers a keynote speech during the second China-Central Asia Summit in Astana, Kazakhstan on Tuesday. Photo: Xinhua

Published: 10:00am, 20 Jun 2025

At a high-level summit this week, China and its Central Asian partners voiced their shared security concerns and showed a united front amid a turbulent global landscape.

The close ties between Beijing and the five Central Asian countries – whose leaders met at the China-Central Asia Summit in Kazakhstan on Tuesday – have sparked questions about whether Russia’s regional dominance is waning as it remains preoccupied with the Ukraine war.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov dismissed this possibility on Monday, saying there was “no reason for such fears”.

“China is our privileged strategic partner, and the Central Asian countries are our natural historical partners,” he added.

But to diplomatic observers, Moscow has limited capacity to counterbalance China’s growing influence, even though Beijing is avoiding challenging Russia as Central Asia’s key security guarantor and dominant power.

Yunis Sharifli, a specialist in China-Central Asia relations at the China Global South Project, said that while China appeared to respect Russia’s lead in “hard security”, its diversified economic expansion was clearly encroaching on areas of Russian interest.

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