Beijing strengthens ties with eSwatini despite diplomatic dispute over Taiwan

China has steadily advanced its trade and infrastructure ties with eSwatini despite a lack of diplomatic relations, which observers said could reflect Beijing’s “long game” approach with the region. In the landlocked nation’s southern region, a major power dam has been under construction by state-owned Chinese company PowerChina since last year. The US$146 million Mpakeni Dam, a project awarded to PowerChina’s subsidiary Sinohydro in 2023, is said to be the first engineering contracting project in eSwatini signed by a mainland Chinese enterprise. Once complete, the dam will hold 120 million cubic metres of water and be able to irrigate up to 5,000 hectares (12,355 acres) of land. According to PowerChina’s website, this will “promote the country’s agricultural development, ensure food security and realise the diversification of crop planting, which is also significant to eradicating hunger and poverty in the country”. It is also a component of the much larger Mkhondvo-Ngwavuma Water Augmentation Project, which has a total expected cost of US$2.8 billion and is funded by the African Development Bank. The construction is expected to take more than four years, according to PowerChina. The project is moving forward despite eSwatini’s long-standing diplomatic relations with Taipei, a position that contradicts Beijing’s one-China policy. Beijing sees Taiwan as part of its territory, to be brought under mainland control by force, if necessary. Most countries, including the United States, do not recognise the island as an independent state, but Washington is opposed to any unilateral change to the status quo. David Shinn, a professor at George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs and a former US diplomat, said Beijing had had an important economic relationship with eSwatini for many years, and the recent deals in the country were more important as “China is playing the long game”. “The more influence it builds in eSwatini’s economic sector, the more influence it will eventually have at the political level,” he said. “Beijing is biding its time.” Shinn said at the commercial and business level, “there has been a lot of crossover in Africa and, for that matter, directly between Taiwan and mainland China”. Even without formal diplomatic ties, eSwatini’s trade with mainland China is considerably larger than its trade with the self-ruled island. In 2024, eSwatini’s exports to mainland China totalled just US$456,000, dwarfed by its US$159 million in imports. This contrasts with trade with Taiwan, where exports amounted to about US$2.6 million and imports were US$8.2 million. A December 2024 Afrobarometer study – a pan-African, non-partisan research network that conducts public attitude surveys in more than 35 African countries – found that most Emaswati citizens (73 per cent) believed mainland China’s economic activities had a significant influence on their country. Taiwan has focused on support in areas such as rural electrification and health, and high-profile projects include the King Mswati III International Airport and the Mbabane Government Hospital, which were funded by Taipei. Beijing has also employed a “carrots and sticks” approach in Africa, offering incentives like a zero-tariff policy to 53 African nations with diplomatic relations while withholding benefits to eSwatini, the only African country to recognise Taiwan. When asked about eSwatini’s absence from the 2024 Forum on China-Africa Cooperation Summit (FOCAC) last September, foreign ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said: “Developing official relations with the Taiwan region is not in eSwatini’s interest.” She added that China believed eSwatini “will eventually see the prevailing trend … and make the right decision”, noting broad African support for the one-China principle and beneficial cooperation with Beijing. This strategy was also evident in Beijing’s intensified efforts to woo other remaining allies to Taipei. In May, representatives from Haiti and Saint Lucia – two countries that maintain diplomatic ties with Taiwan – attended a forum in Beijing that marked China’s cooperation with Latin American and Caribbean states. Beyond the dam project in eSwatini, direct business engagement is also occurring, particularly in sectors like mining. In 2023, the chairman of the Minerals Management Board, Prince Guduza, visited China where he also met potential investors. The move angered Taipei’s envoy in eSwatini. The government, however, denied the visit was to establish diplomatic relations. According to Emmanuel Matambo, a research director at the Centre for Africa-China Studies at the University of Johannesburg, while Beijing used to pressure African countries to recognise it at Taipei’s expense, in recent years it had become less explicit and aggressive because the general trend in Africa is now to side with mainland China. At the same time, those with strong ties to mainland China often aligned with Beijing’s positions willingly, without external pressure, he added. Matambo said that while it was not possible to know how long eSwatini would maintain formal relations with Taipei, “as things stand, Chinese interests are present in eSwatini”. “Eswatini’s negligible economic size and political clout at the global level do not compel China to lobby aggressively for recognition, even though it would greatly welcome the establishment of formal relations with eSwatini,” he added. However, observers said a break with Taipei was unlikely as long as eSwatini’s King Mswati III, who has ruled since 1986, remained in power. It is also Taiwan’s only diplomatic ally on the continent after Burkina Faso switched to Beijing months before the 2018 FOCAC summit. According to Yun Sun, director of the China Programme at the Stimson Centre, eSwatini has been able to maintain closer economic ties with Taiwan because “the royal family enjoys a particularly tight relationship with Taiwan”. “They are less susceptible to Chinese influence. [Eswatini] has maintained its relationship with Taiwan, but not for the lack of trying from the Chinese,” she said.

Beijing strengthens ties with eSwatini despite diplomatic dispute over Taiwan

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Multimillion dollar investment in massive dam project could be a ‘long game’ to assert political influence over African nation

Multimillion dollar investment in massive dam project could be a ‘long game’ to assert political influence over African nation