Why are tensions along Afghan-Tajikistan border such a headache for China?

Monday’s fatal blast at a Chinese restaurant in Kabul has underscored the grave security threat China is facing, not just in Afghanistan but also in wider Central Asia. One potential area of vulnerability is Tajikistan, Central Asia’s poorest country, which has a weak military and a long border with Afghanistan. On the same day as the Kabul bombing, the Chinese embassy in Tajikistan issued a travel warning, telling its citizens and companies to boost security and evacuate from the border region “as soon as possible” – after four gunmen were killed trying to cross the border from Afghanistan. Here is what we know about the tensions in the region and what the stakes are for China. What is the situation along the border? Since the Taliban returned to power in 2021, cross-border clashes have flared up regularly with both sides accusing the other of sheltering hostile forces. This situation is a highly complicated one, including clashes between the Taliban and Tajik forces, as well as others involving armed militant groups. In November, at least five Chinese workers were killed in two attacks in the border region, which Tajikistan said had originated from the Afghan province of Badakhshan. In the first incident, three Chinese workers were killed when assailants crossed from Afghanistan and attacked the employees’ compound at a Tajik-Chinese private gold-mining company in the border region of Khatlon. Four days later, a group of militants crossed the border at night and launched another assault targeting Chinese workers with the state-owned China Road and Bridge Corporation in Darvoz, killing at least two people. No group has yet claimed responsibility for these attacks. Tajik border guards said the attacks were carried out by criminal groups. The Taliban later said two suspects had been arrested and suggested “certain groups that want to harm Afghanistan’s relations with other countries could be behind such incidents”. A further round of fighting flared up last month. Why are Chinese nationals being targeted along the border? The motive for the attacks remains unknown but they will have a “negative impact on Chinese investment in the border region”, according to Zhu Yongbiao, a professor from the Centre for Afghanistan Studies at Lanzhou University. Both Tajikistan and the Taliban have stepped up their own border controls since 2021, but Zhu said that was far from enough to maintain security along their shared border, which is 1,344km (835 miles) long. “The security capabilities of the two countries are limited, and it will be impossible for them to ensure the safety of all the companies, especially when some of them are not registered or are small and private companies like gold-mining ventures,” he said. What are China’s major concerns? Beijing has long been worried that terrorists in Afghanistan and Central Asia could cross into the highly sensitive Xinjiang region or threaten the safety of its investments under the Belt and Road Initiative. China shares a 92km border with Afghanistan, but this is mainly mountains that are blanketed in snow for much of the year. However, the much longer – 477km – border between Xinjiang and Tajikistan crosses more varied terrain and has become much more vulnerable because of rising instability in the area. Islamic State Khorasan (Isis-K), the local branch of the militant group that claimed responsibility for Monday’s attack, has sought recruits from Central Asian countries and from Uygurs in Xinjiang. The attack killed at least one Chinese citizen as well as six Afghans. Isis-K said it was targeting Chinese nationals in retaliation for Beijing’s oppression of Uygurs, a mainly Muslim ethnic minority in Xinjiang, and criticised the Taliban’s dealings with Beijing. China denies the claims it is mistreating Muslim groups, saying its priority is to combat extremism and terrorism. How is China’s relationship with Tajikistan? Beijing has maintained a good relationship with President Emomali Rahmon, who has ruled Tajikistan since 1992. Chinese companies have invested heavily in energy projects and infrastructure there, and last year China overtook Russia as Tajikistan’s largest trading partner for the first time. Security has also been high on the agenda, both in terms of their bilateral relationship and through platforms such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, of which China and Tajikistan are both founding members. The two sides have carried out joint training exercises, anti-drugs raids and border patrols. Three days after US troops pulled out of Afghanistan in 2021, a counterterrorism drill was held near the Tajik capital Dushanbe. There have also been reports that China established a military facility in the Pamir mountains in Tajikistan in 2016 and that it has helped train Tajik security officers, although Beijing has denied these reports. In November, during a visit to Tajikistan, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi pledged to strengthen joint border patrols to “prevent the infiltration and spread of terrorist forces, and build a strong security shield”. Will the security threat escalate? Zhu said “it could not be ruled out that the long-standing conflict between the Taliban and Tajikistan may escalate, though a rapid flare-up is not expected any time soon”. However, he said the threat to Chinese assets and citizens along the border was likely to remain and that terrorist groups such as Isis-K may look to draw international attention and rally supporters by targeting them. Zhu said Beijing was unlikely to be deterred and would continue its engagement with the Taliban. However, it may look to “better guide and regulate Chinese investment and those doing business in Afghanistan”. China has not officially recognised the Taliban as Afghanistan’s government, and so far only Russia has done so. However, Beijing has accredited a Taliban-nominated official as Afghanistan’s ambassador and Taliban officials have regularly visited China to court investment.

Why are tensions along Afghan-Tajikistan border such a headache for China?

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}A suicide bombing at a restaurant in Kabul is just the latest sign of how Chinese citizens can become caught up in the region’s instability

What is the situation along the border?

A suicide bombing at a restaurant in Kabul is just the latest sign of how Chinese citizens can become caught up in the region’s instability