US says mainland China not planning to attack Taiwan in 2027 after threat assessment

Beijing is unlikely to attack Taiwan next year, given security and economic deterrents, including its belief that an amphibious assault could fail and that the technological, supply chain and investor costs would be huge, according to a US threat assessment released on Wednesday.

The intelligence overview appeared to walk back a projection by the Pentagon last year that Beijing wanted to take the self-governing island by force as early as 2027 and comes as US President Donald Trump takes a more conciliatory tone towards China.

Trump said on Tuesday that a planned summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing set for later this month would be postponed “a month or so” given the Israel-US war on Iran.

Tuesday’s unclassified version of the 2026 Annual Threat Assessment of the US Intelligence Committee did not flesh out its reasoning, including any views on how the struggling Mainland economy might temper any attack on Taiwan, festering US-China trade ties or recent corruption investigations of top People’s Liberation Army commanders, including Zhang Youxia and Liu Zhenli.