Can China broker peace for Iran again? 2023 was different, analysts say

As Tehran signalled that Beijing could serve as a diplomatic broker in its intensifying war with the United States and Israel, analysts cautioned that the Saudi-Iranian rapprochement of 2023 could prove “hard to replicate”. They also highlighted the difficulty of Washington accepting third-party mediation, after US President Donald Trump confirmed that a planned meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing would be delayed by “five or six weeks” because of the armed conflict. Beijing has already engaged in high-level diplomacy and sent its special Middle East envoy to the region to try and de-escalate tensions in the third week of the war. In an interview with Al Jazeera on Wednesday, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said “several countries, including China, can act as mediators”, adding that Tehran was ready to consider proposals to end the conflict. Araghchi pointed to China’s role in restoring diplomatic ties between Iran and Saudi Arabia in 2023, noting that both sides had respected the agreement reached in Beijing. The development was widely seen as reflecting China’s growing influence in the region. Araghchi said Iran was ready to listen to proposals from mediating countries to end the conflict, provided they met Tehran’s requirements and conditions. The American-Israeli strikes on Iran that began on February 28 have killed a number of senior Iranian officials, including the former supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. In retaliation, Iran’s missile strikes targeting Gulf countries aligned with the US have significantly affected the global energy chain, especially with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20 per cent of the world’s oil supply travels. Amid Tehran’s open invitation for mediation, analysts said the conditions underpinning the Saudi-Iranian breakthrough of 2023 were fundamentally different. Li Weijian, a researcher at the Shanghai Institutes for International Studies, drew a distinction between the conflict involving Saudi Arabia and Iran and the current hostilities, noting tensions in 2023 were “not direct”. “What we are seeing now involves direct military confrontation between Iran, Israel and the United States.” Li said China’s role in the 2023 rapprochement was, to some extent, “facilitating a process already under way”, noting that Tehran and Riyadh had previously engaged in backchannel communication, including through smaller Gulf states such as Kuwait. “They needed a major power to provide a platform and a form of guarantee.” In contrast, the situation now was further complicated by Washington’s reluctance to accept third-party mediation, Li added. According to Zhu Junwei, director of the Horizon Insights Centre, a Beijing-based think tank, the war could escalate significantly and “any potential mediator would face great difficulty under such circumstances”. She noted that there had been no report of direct China-US communication on the Iran issue. Zhu said that as the war’s impact on the US, Iran and the wider world grew, Trump would face mounting domestic pressure and “need to find a way out, but he certainly does not want the outside world to see that the way out is provided by China or any other third party”. “Even if there are mediation efforts by a third party, a backchannel approach would be more appropriate.” Zhu added that China’s approach to mediation could differ from what Tehran was expecting. “China is unlikely to put forward a specific plan for the parties to accept. It is more likely to propose principles with the expectation that the parties would negotiate among themselves based on their agreement to these principles,” she said. Chen Guangmeng, executive dean of the Academy of International and Regional Studies at Sichuan International Studies University, described Araghchi’s remarks as “merely an acknowledgement of China’s mediation capacity and an expression of openness”, rather than a direct invitation for Beijing’s involvement. “Even if Beijing is willing, Washington’s stance is also crucial,” he said. “Only if both the US and Iran agree could China realistically take on a mediating role.” Chen added: “China’s traditional principle of non-interference sits uneasily with deep involvement in international crisis mediation, making practical implementation highly challenging.” Nevertheless, Beijing has stepped up its diplomatic engagement. In recent weeks, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi has held calls with his counterparts from all six Gulf Cooperation Council members – Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates – as well as with Iran and Israel. Beijing also dispatched Zhai Jun, its special envoy for the Middle East, to the region. On Tuesday, Zhai met Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty in Cairo. Chinese foreign ministry spokesman Lin Jian said on Thursday that “such mediation efforts would continue as long as the conflict persists”. However, analysts cautioned against undue expectations of Beijing. “There are voices suggesting that China should step in to mediate now that the situation has reached this point,” Li said. “But in many cases, this is misleading. It shifts the burden onto China.” “If mediation succeeds, it shows China’s capability. If it fails, it will be used to criticise China.”

Can China broker peace for Iran again? 2023 was different, analysts say

.css-1c6uqr6{color:inherit;font-weight:inherit;font-size:inherit;font-family:inherit;line-height:inherit;overflow-wrap:break-word;}Tehran has signalled a willingness for Beijing to act as a mediator in its escalating war against US and Israel

Tehran has signalled a willingness for Beijing to act as a mediator in its escalating war against US and Israel